Why the 2008 Housing Crisis Recovery Is Just an Illusion (w/ Keith Jurow)

Why the 2008 Housing Crisis Recovery Is Just an Illusion (w/ Keith Jurow)

KEITH JUROW: There are very dangerous circumstances
today that you have to think about, in terms of making decisions concerning houses… The first is that there are still millions
of these redefaulting, modified mortgages… If you add to that the fact that you have
millions of homeowners defaulting or in long-term delinquencies who have no intention of repaying
the mortgage… This is a real shocker– many of these subprime
mortgage borrowers haven’t paid a nickel in the last five years…And you think that you
can stay as long as you can. And isn’t that just great? The only ones who lose are the lenders. KEITH JUROW: Hello, my name is Keith Jurow. I’m an analyst. And I’m the real estate columnist for MarketWatch. Since 2010, I’ve been trying to educate my
viewers and readers that the socalled housing market recovery is really nothing more than
an illusion. Let me start by making two claims. The first, I don’t think it’s a wise decision
to buy a house– either to live in or for investments– right now. And the second is that some homeowners should
consider selling their house now before they lose whatever equity is in it. KEITH JUROW: At the end of the housing bubble,
prices began to level off in 2006. And then, in 2007, they started to decline
around the country. Things got really bad quickly. And in 2008 and 2009, prices were falling
everywhere. Nowhere worse than in places where the speculation
was greatest, like Phoenix, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, most of California, and much of Florida. Foreclosures just kept rising as prices were
tumbling. And then, by early 2010, the lenders and their
mortgage services panicked. And they said, we have to do something to
stop the bleeding. So they decided to sharply reduce the number
of foreclosed properties that they would put on the market. If you take a look at this first graphic,
you’ll see that in the left column, for these 10 metros, there were plenty of homes in foreclosure
in July of 2010. But if you take a look at the middle column,
you’ll see that very few of them were actually put on the market. And then if you take a look at the right column,
you’ll see that almost none of those put on the market were priced over $300,000. They just decided they weren’t prepared to
take the losses on these expensive homes. So most of the foreclosures were $200,000
and under. And the other expensive properties were simply
left to sit. The question is, what finally turned the housing
markets around the country around? Things were really bad in 2010. And did this solution work? Not really. Because throughout 2010 and 2011, foreclosures
continued to grow. They actually peaked in 2010 with over a million
foreclosures. Nowhere was this worse than in California
and in LA. So throughout 2010 and 2011, foreclosures
continued to rise. Prices continued to drop. And the services decided that we need to do
something more drastic than what we’ve been doing so far. So starting in early 2012, what they did was
actually reduced the number of properties that they repossessed and put into foreclosure. This really began to make a difference, especially
in Los Angeles, which was, you might say, the epicenter of this whole madness. And by 2012, at least in LA, prices began
to turn up. But that wasn’t the case for the rest of the
country, especially in the rest of California and Florida, which was just a mess. But they continued to close the spigots, so
to speak, so that for example, in LA in 2012, there were only 25% of the foreclosures that
there had been in 2008, which was really the peak of foreclosures in California. By 2013 and 2014, the foreclosures almost
stopped completely. And the services began to see that this was
actually working. If we keep these properties off the market,
and we don’t foreclose on them at all, then this could turn around prices. And very gradually in 2013 and 2014, around
the country, prices slowly began to increase. The important thing that I want to point out
is that this had nothing to do with any kind of economic recovery. The housing market turnaround was done because
of these actions taken by the lenders and servicers to do something about this foreclosure
mess. KEITH JUROW: I should mention the New York
City metro, because it was a really special and unique case. It’s the largest metro in the country, with
almost 20 million people. And what happened there was just extraordinary. The lenders and the servicers never put very
many properties into foreclosure, and sold very few. If you take a look at the next graphic, you’ll
see on it in this table that in the first row, there were hundreds of thousands of properties
in the New York City metro that received what were known as pre-foreclosure notices telling
them that they were in danger of foreclosure, these delinquent homeowners. But then if you look at the second row, you’ll
see that very few of them were actually foreclosed between 2010 and 2014. Almost none. And that continues to this day. And that was the only reason why prices in
the New York City metro– and I mean the entire metro, New York, Long Island, Connecticut,
and New Jersey– prices never really dropped very much at all. And that was entirely because of these actions
taken in terms of, we just won’t put them into foreclosure or sell them. KEITH JUROW: Now what about these strategies
taken by the lenders and the servicers? Did they work? Have they worked? I would say, yes and no. They did keep a lot of these properties out
of foreclosure. They didn’t put them on the market, so it
had that kind of a positive effect in terms of prices. But there was another big problem. There were so many delinquent homeowners that
hadn’t been put into foreclosure that they had to decide, what do we do about them? Just reducing the number of properties that
you put into foreclosure wouldn’t be sufficient, because new delinquencies were rising all
the time. And so, for them, the solution that they decided
on was to modify their delinquent mortgages. And the shocking number is that between 2008
and 2018, some 25 million mortgages were modified. Or they had another term for things that weren’t
permanent modifications, they called it workouts. I won’t get into that. But 25 million of them were modified, so that
the servicers wouldn’t have to foreclose on them. And the question is, well, did that work? Yes, in the sense that it stopped– it prevented
the mortgage servicers from having to foreclose on millions of additional mortgages. That wasn’t the end of the problem, as we’ll
see. KEITH JUROW: Here’s another problem that they
had to deal with. During the bubble, there were some– there
was over $2 trillion of subprime mortgages that were originated. These were poorly underwritten. And they were really a disaster. Very quickly, they started defaulting in droves. And several million of them have already been
foreclosed. There are something like roughly $800 billion
worth of these subprime mortgages still outstanding. And the problem is, if you take a look at
this third graphic, is that– this is a real shocker– is that many of these subprime mortgage
borrowers haven’t paid a nickel in the last five years. Take a look at the column. You’ll see that just a year ago, in some of
the worst states, half of these hadn’t paid a nickel in the last five years. And this problem continues. And if you take a look at the states, yes
there are the usual suspects. But you’ll see on the bottom that there are
some states you wouldn’t think that they had such a delinquent problem, but they do. I have seen– I have seen reports where some
of these folks have not paid for seven, eight, nine years. And the servicers simply let them sit. We’re talking about several million of these
mortgages still outstanding. Now, you may ask, well, wait a minute, Keith. How can a couple of million mortgages take
down major housing markets? That’s a fair question. And my answer is simply that the problem that
we’re facing today goes well beyond just the subprime mortgages. KEITH JUROW: The problem is far greater than
just the delinquent subprime mortgages. During the craziest period of the bubble,
some 20 million homeowners refinanced their first mortgage. But it wasn’t you– you might say, big deal. What’s the– people refinance all the time. But these– what became known as cash out
refinances were different. The homeowner wanted to tap the equity, the
growing equity in their home. So what they did was they took out a new first
mortgage. They refinanced the old one with a larger
first mortgage. And they took the difference between the two
in cash. And that became known as a Cash Out Refi. And it was, if you think about it, it was
like money falling from the sky. And in California, nothing was crazier than
there. You could pull out $100,000, $200,000, $300,000
in cash because of the growing value of your property. The lenders were more than willing to shovel
it out, because they thought the prices would go to the sky. And what happened when home prices leveled
off? Millions of these homeowners, especially Californian
and some of the larger metros– New York City and Chicago and around the coast. But it was nationwide. They found themselves with a much larger mortgage. And when prices began to turn down very quickly,
the property was underwater. They were underwater and they started defaulting
in droves. And that was one of the main reasons why the
mortgage servicers decided, we have to modify these millions of mortgages. Otherwise, this price collapse will just continue. KEITH JUROW: You would think that with all
of these solutions, that would solve the problem. But it didn’t. Because almost from the beginning, millions
of these modified mortgages started redefaulting. The homeowners, for some reason, whatever,
they decided that my house is underwater and I can’t really afford the mortgage. Or I have no intention of repaying. And so they started redefaulting. Some of them have redefaulted two or three
times. If you take a look at this next graphic, this
is from Fannie Mae. You can see that the number of redefaults,
as quickly as a year after the modification, is increasing between 2012 and 2016. So the situation with the redefaults is getting
worse. A second redefault, the chances of redefaulting
a second modification, is greater. So this problem, you have to understand, is
getting– is getting worse as we move forward. My view is that there really is no solution
to this massive problem of redefaulting modified mortgages. We’re talking about millions of them. If that’s the case, then at some point, many–
if not most– of these modified mortgages that are redefaulting will eventually have
to be foreclosed and liquidated. And when that happens, then it will really
hit some of the major metros hard. And prices could actually begin to decline. I hate to use the word, but, again. KEITH JUROW: So the question that you’re probably
thinking about is, where are we now, in terms of housing markets, with all these problems
that you’ve discussed? The first thing you need to understand is
that everybody believes that home prices have gone up around the country the last four or
five years. But if you take a look at this last graphic,
you’ll see that it’s been very uneven. Take a look at those metros that are listed. And you’ll see– with the exception of those
three west coast metros– the profits of homeowners who sold just a year ago is really pretty
paltry. New York City, 25%. Some of them, the last one is still– those
who sold actually lost money. But keep this in mind. The average length of time that these people
who sold a year ago owned the property was more than eight years. So the annual rate of return over that period
of time with at least half of these metros, I would say, just stinks. You probably could have got more if you just
put it into a good US government note or bond over the same period of time. So you need to keep that in mind. And these are real numbers. These are real– these are real people, in
terms of what profit they actually got. There’s no indices that are involved here. No Case Shiller. And it paints a different picture than you
might think. Second thing is that for many months now,
home price– home sales have been declining in the hottest markets. Denver, LA, Portland, especially Seattle,
the number of homes sold has been weakening for almost half a year now. Added to that is the fact that the number
of homes for sale, which for several years had been declining, is now soaring in these
same formerly hot markets. Seattle, it’s doubled in the past year. Portland, Denver, LA, most of California,
this is the case. That is a very bad combination, rising numbers
of properties for sale and home sales declining. If that continues, then what will probably
happen is that the sellers will be forced to drop their asking price. And if that’s the case, then we may start
seeing price drops as well, something that was inconceivable. And in some of your own minds, you may think
that can’t happen. But the conditions are really there. KEITH JUROW: I’ve written about Case Shiller. And I don’t use it, because I’m not a big
fan of indices. I think they distort real markets. I don’t use median prices as well, because
that can be distorted by the mix of houses on the market. I like these– the table that we just put
up, because it shows it’s a real picture of what’s going on. If you sold your house for 25% higher than
when you bought it eight years ago, average that out over eight years. And it’s pretty terrible. Plus, remember, that’s a gross profit. If you tack on a 5% or 6% commission and reduce
that, it gets even worse. So that New York City average profit of 25%
then becomes 19%. Over eight years, that’s pretty terrible. But the important thing is to see that metros
are very different. You have the hot markets in the West Coast,
which get all the attention. But nobody takes a look at those other markets,
where it hasn’t been nearly as great. And that’s the reality. A lot of people will face a situation where
if they want to sell after eight years of owning a home, they may find that their house
has only gone up 10%, 15%, 20%. And they then can trade up. KEITH JUROW: Off the record, I don’t want
to get too wonky. In other words, I try to focus on the reality
of the situation for a homeowner. If your house, for example, has only gone
up 10%, what can you do? You would like to trade up to a nicer house. But for many homeowners around the country–
with the exception of maybe LA and Seattle and Portland and some of the hottest metros
on the west coast– they can’t do that. So I’ve written elsewhere that that trade-up
market is still with us. The problem that a lot of people would like
to trade up to a bigger house, not enough profit in the current house to be able to
put down a bigger payment is just a crucial factor. I don’t think there’s anything that I said
today that’s a crystal ball prediction. Because a year from now, I don’t know what’s
going to happen. It could be things coming out of the blue. So I’m hesitant to make any prediction. But I think if somebody is listening to what
I’m saying, you put it all together. And this problem of delinquencies, of foreclosures
not sold is a huge problem. And if you can picture millions of properties
just sitting there– some vacant, some not– that haven’t paid the mortgage in several
years, that’s the reality in many major metros, and some that aren’t really major. And those who hadn’t paid for five years,
I picture them laughing at those people who are still paying their mortgage. Because they don’t think they’re going to
get thrown out for years. And why should I pay if I don’t have to? That’s what’s going on. And that’s a reality that most viewers just
haven’t a clue about, that I think that they need to know. And to me, anyway, it’s more important than
peak the trough stuff. I’ve worked with a lot of economists. And I’m not an economist. And I don’t like the way they talk about things. I don’t learn very much, so I try to stay
away from that wonky kind of stuff, if you don’t mind. KEITH JUROW: I would just conclude by saying
that there are very dangerous circumstances today that you have to think about, in terms
of making decisions concerning houses. The first is that there are still millions
of these redefaulting, modified mortgages that are growing, that are still a problem. And like I said, there’s really no solution
to that. If you add to that the fact that you have
millions of homeowners defaulting or in long-term delinquencies who have no intention of repaying
the mortgage, that’s what you have to understand. If you haven’t paid a nickel over the last
five years, you have no intention of repaying it. And you think that you can stay as long as
you can. And isn’t that just great for them? The only ones who lose are the lenders, which
we don’t spend very much time talking about. We also have what I’ve mentioned before, home
sales, which are declining. That’s always a dangerous sign. And the last thing, as I said, is the number
of properties on the market actively listed is growing. And shows no sign of turning around. If that continues, that’s really big. So what does that mean for you? What would I do? There is no way I would consider buying a
house either to live in or to– as an investment with all of these circumstances and risks
that I’ve been talking about. And the second thing is if I were a seller,
if I were a homeowner, I would seriously consider selling before things get much worse. JUSTINE UNDERHILL: How far can you go in the
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100 thoughts on “Why the 2008 Housing Crisis Recovery Is Just an Illusion (w/ Keith Jurow)

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  2. Not sure how much I believe this. If you google Non-Agency RMBS Delinquency Status History, you will get to the government page which clearly shows that the % of people who have been keeping the mortgage paid over the last 12 months (Current Clean %) has been growing not getting worse. This indicates that less people are having problems paying mortgages. Maybe I am looking at the wrong data… does make me question this video.

  3. The lenders get a write off.

  4. perhaps the solution to the housing shortage in America is to disallow banks and lenders from owning any housing property and require that those properties once delinquent and foreclosable should be transferred to a housing bank for resale in the market place ~

  5. sell house, rent and buy BTC ?

  6. I don't understand how we got this far carrying this dead weight along so much of our economic history. Just to think, we would still be the most prosperous country the face of the earth had ever seen if it weren't for the insane uphill battle against autocrats, technocrats, and central planners like the Federal Reserve that have cut into that wealth for a century. So many horrible decisions sponsored by corrupt, destructively idiotic politicians and hand waving pseudo-intellectual economists. We can never be free or wealthy again until these fake economies are dismantled.

  7. Renting out properties should be illegal, .. it destroys neighborhoods and creates poverty. Only the parasites benefit financially, but they have no self-respect as parasites on the community.

  8. Landlords steal from the poor, so why not from the banks. LOL.

  9. No may about it. Prices will drop 50%.

  10. Dont buy a home to live?! Thats not reasonable nor a valid theory.
    Buy a house only as big as you need.
    Stay small, pay it off. Low taxes, low heating cooling bills, low maintenance costs. I do not need a mcMansion.
    Mortage is $200. NO WORRIES.

  11. @21:04 Well. It sounds like the American people should employ a bit of solidarity on this one. If you want to shut anything down, you have to act as a unit. All mortgage holders – stop paying! All at the same time. Barricade yourselves in your homes if need be. If you think that the state has the manpower to go after all of you, think again. It's simple math. There is always way more of you than the puny military/police numbers.

  12. Love how he says “off the record” @ 19:20

  13. California is full of greedy, spending, spoiled idiots that ruin things for everyone else.

  14. I have never seen a man with that much hair coming out of his ears.

  15. The lenders create the money at the ledger of their banking by the act of creating the loan. This is absolutely true and there is nothing wrong with that practise except that the bank assumes ownership of the mortgage despite the fact that it is most likely sold on the very day it is created! Also very true. The banks could not sell the mortgage without the signature which passes the created loan to their ownership. This really is true. It is not the houses that are changing hands but the mortgage documents at bank level.

  16. Millions of people who cannot pay their mortgages any longer cannot send the price of property up because they are the people who the property market depends on! How will they seek another property to pay more? when they cannot pay what they are being asked now? You are talking about a massive surplus of empty property. In fact you are talking of civil war.

  17. "I'm not going to make any predictions I'm not a crystal ball…but I wouldn't buy a house to live in or as an investment right now" …lol wut?

  18. The only answer to this problem is for the government to DO NOTHING during the next collapse to flush out the system. Yes there will be a depression but when its over you will finally know the true value of property

  19. This whole talk was relevant 10 years ago. Loans were not easy because they believed values would increase forever, they were easy because the risk was being offloaded via MBS. By the way nothing has changed.

  20. Who and where is the economic demand for houses at these prices? Crushing wages has dealt an entire generation out.

  21. The biggest reason Housing rebounded since 2008 due to Federal Reserve 0% interest rates for almost 8 years. They didn’t need subprime this time. Let’s End The Federal Reserve

  22. Mortgages modified how? That’s an important piece of information you left out

  23. I've watched this twice. This so called expert did once address the cost of housing. He is only looking at property as an investment

  24. Note: "the only ones that loses is the lender" money that was lent was created out of thin air via the fractional reserve banking scam. cash out re-fi's lenders happy to shovel it (money) out because the money came to these lenders from thin air.

  25. Yeaah ….. sell your homes tomorrow at fire sale prices so the Chinese and retail investors like me can scoop them up. If the values crash, it would be a win-win. No?

  26. Moral of the story: Be a dead beat debtor.

  27. Is this guy looking up and to the left constantly using his more creative thought side of his brain? Or is the media camera reflecting like a mirror for us viewers?

  28. What Keith doesn't answer is America has more renters than homeowners.

  29. I waiting for big tech companies to get out of california so i can feel and enjoy the housing vacuum suction. But I hear thats never gonna happen.

  30. He has a whiny voice

  31. because they mow lawn and keep place clean, so maintain some value….

  32. In Texas, when the housing bubble hit and homes started getting foreclosed upon, foreclosed homes were being snatched up by investors with cash. And they went fairly quickly. And when the home loan modification rolled out, "in Texas" the longest a person would go without paying on their mortgage was 1 year. And that one year was rolled into the back of the loan. If at that time the home couldn't be paid for, it went on the sales market because Texas has been growing with legal and illegal immigration and people from around the world who had come to the USA (specifically Texas) found our low cost of homes and low taxes very attractive. So it seems to me Keith is not talking about a national problem but a region by region problem. And now, if you look at Florida, you can't find a home vacant for long. And my home sits on 8 acres. It's a small 4 bedroom and my mortgage is only $500 per month. It would be foolish to sell my home because even one bedroom apartments go for over $800 if they are located in a average area.

  33. People don't already know this? O_o

  34. The real problem is the people who are taking out these loans not being educated on what they are getting into. Finance should be taught in every educational system.

  35. Paper Losses can be carried until they can't…and then these arseholes will expect to be bailed out

  36. Sir: 8 years 10% increase in price, can’t upgrade home… what about equity? Your equity doesn’t go up in 8 years? Make an extra annual payment people and enjoy your mortgaged homes…

  37. dark, dreary, blurry, depressing background…

  38. Clearly shows the US housing market is crazy. However one thing is not said, is that housing is a need, not just an investment. If you don't own a home, then you're paying a rent. Depending on where you are, that could be a significant amount of money, that you'll never recover. Owning a home that doesn't grow much in value is not that bad a deal in comparison.

  39. Is it me…or does this guy talk like Larry Fine from the 3 Stooges?

  40. And then these ''analysts'' will buy your house at lower price during the recession , there is nothing worse than renting = burning money every month… sell your property only if political and economic situation is terrible in the area your property is located and use that cash to get mortgage.

  41. Does anyone have a link to the data at the 10:35 mark? I can't find it anywhere.

  42. GREAT REPORT [email protected]!🙂🙂👍👍👍👍

  43. Keith is a nonpareil—great interview!

  44. Prices SHOULD drop❕

  45. How many of you still trust the government……LOL?


  47. Wow! Great interview.

  48. I have a friend who has made his fortune in RE buying/selling. He keeps telling me since I sold at the top in '07 that I should buy again because in RE there is NO bad time to buy. I asked him why 90% of the high end houses that are in foreclosure here in Las Vegas are either not foreclosed on or foreclosed and held off the market. He admits he has no clue and has tried to call banks to buy them but he gets stonewalled. I think I know. The losing banks are secretly being bailed out with public money. They are being subsidized to keep the housing market from crashing. How long will this last? Remember, the feds have unlimited money to manipulate the economy, delay, delay, delay the inevitable runaway inflation or "Greatest Depression" or both.

  49. Great stuff. I had picked up on the suggestion it was "Wall Street" who were buying the homes but not the fact they simply stopped following through with the Foreclosure process to slow down supply on the market and that there's a lot of people "squatting" in their houses so to speak. Like with many things the "value" of a given house in a given house seems "determined" by the last sale price

  50. If you're smart… Answer this:
    Freddie sells MBSs to the secondary market. So why isn't the deck of cards falling? How's it being propped?
    Is Freddie just holding these losers in an inhouse portfolio?

  51. This is fighting the last crisis, eventhough the US housingmarket is a mess (not to mention in Europe too) it's not going to be the epicenter of the next crisis. Roughly each 8.6 years there is a financial international panic. The latest one takes a little longer to reach the surface as its thw bondmarket. Particularly in Japan and Europe but with the euro structure being a giant disaster, you there have the epicenter of your next crash. Is this foing to send US housingmarket down and bailouts for US banks, absolutely, but that's secundair as the crisis becomes a contagion. But right now, particularly in Europe (which is sad to say cause I live there, I'm Dutch) the crisis that EU politicians made with thw euro structure is going to send Europe back to the stoneage. Part of the absolute economic disaster EU politicians created is why they provoke Russia, to divert attention to the mess they created, politics 101 in such situations in an efford to keep their jobs and power.

  52. 2009 was a nasty year. In the summer my landlords house was foreclosed on but after a few months for some reason it got reversed.

    We have lots of animals and finding another place would have been next to impossible. I remember just throwing up all the time in disgust and I lost a lot of weight.

    I hate real estate and banking now.

  53. So you should sell property at it's high and sell just before an economic downturn?

    Amazing, I never thought of that! LoL!!!!!

  54. If you are thinking about buying real estate, first check to see if there is a poopmap app for that area, and if there is, don't buy there…..cause that neighborhood is on its way down.

  55. Moral of the story. Dead beat regulator, Dead beat lender, dead beat underwriter. Dead beat debtor. Hope I didn’t leave anyone out

  56. If I lose my job and my home value collapses and I'm getting an eviction notice, I'm burning that building down to the ground. No way I'm letting the bank take my home and I'm left with $600 000 debt without a job. Then they can send me to prison and I'll get free room and board.

  57. Excellent interview, scary but excellent. The FED has a lot of debt monetization to do to to keep this property bubble inflated. So, the banks don’t foreclose and they’re stuck with these non-performing mortgages. But, with more QE (debt monetization) right around the corner they’re able to sell those non-performing mortgages at face value to the FED and the market stays propped up. But, for how much longer?

  58. It is late 2019 how many are still living in houses from 2008 and not paying? 0?

  59. Who pays the property taxes?

  60. Great ….cash out refinance ….stop paying new loan for 5 or 6 years…save that money …buy a camper and live down by the river……buy a house for cash when prices hit bottom. Im hip to that but the wife wont go for that

  61. How serious is this material? Anyone pls chime in.

  62. So should we buy now, or wait till next year? answers from anyone appreciated, thanks!

  63. Everyone always seems to forget that if you make any profit selling your house after considering the initial cost to buy it and subsequent improvements, you live rent free also.

  64. Dont think grandpa really is on top on this

  65. What is wrong with the entire world?………..corruption, greed

  66. I wonder why people want to move away from Seattle, Portland, L.A, San Francisco?

  67. At 0:50 Keith Jurow says: "The only people who loose are the lenders" I strongly disagree! The lenders created the Fiat money out of thin air. They didn't loose anything except the profits they were expecting! And sometimes even broke the law with complete impunity. Read The Creature from Jeckyll Island and watch the documentary Zeitgeist Addendum. Thanks.

  68. I just bought a house after waiting for the market to crash. Now the market will crash.

  69. This guy is not telling the whole truth. Banks were selling off massive volumes of homes to wholesale buyers like "Invitation Homes", which is a company created by Blackstone to poured BILLIONS into the US residential market and turned these homes into rental properties. This helped stop the bleeding and took inventory off the market. The big question is…what is the future plan of these mega-landlords?

  70. the simple problem is they allow outsider to buy house.

  71. Is there any market in the USA today that isn't manipulated?

  72. bla bla bla bla bla!!!  bad advice  !!!!   propaganda !!!!  Soup and mess. think for Your self , dont let this so brilliant  idiots think for you !!!!   B A D ADVICE  !!!!  a house is a house , notting more. you can not lose , wee all need roof over owr heads anyway.

  73. Ok did he just say if your a seller sell and if your a buyer don't buy. Who is the seller going to sale to… Market stall at its finest.

  74. Excellent video! I've been flipping single family homes and condos in the Chicago area since 2001. I generally hold a flip for 2 years and sell. I bought my last property in 2014 and sold it in 2016. Your analyst is spot on. The real estate market is currently in a long term bear market which will last at least a decade if not more. His analysis on strategic default is accurate. I have friends who bought the top of the market in 2008, only to stop paying the lender and live in their property for 5 years and not pay a cent. only to buy the property back from the lender pennies on the dollar. lol!

  75. How do you speculate a housing crisis or recovery when there not building new houses all there building is new luxury high rise apartments in any city thats building

  76. The treasury products he mentions are garbage also.

  77. nice

  78. Why do homes have to go up in price all the time if no work is done on them they should go down in price . Eventually no one can even afford rent on a home that may have only cost a couple of years rent to build 50 years ago in other words a  $40,000 house initially now on the market for 500,000 . Speculators and realtors drive up prices .

  79. he hates to use the word decline again, am I living in crazy world? Where I live a tent under the bridge cost a million dollars to own. I it is a nightmare ever hoping and praying to one day own something in Los Angeles. I pray every night for a giant earth quake and a pure leveling of the housing market that would make the 2008 look like a walk in the park, but instead of like in 2008 your property that you bought in 2000 for 300k that is now work 1.5 million, and oh no bubble burst 2008!! Now your property is now worth 1.3 million dollars, fast forward to today and that property bought in 2000 is now worth 3 million dollars and no longer owned by regular people. It is all a big scam if you ask me, and I hope he is right. What is wrong with having a house value be what its value is, why do we have to inflate everything.

  80. Great but missed how many homes purchased by corporations for rent. Corporations borrowing at less than zero, consumer can't compete.

  81. and none of the banksters or their crooked servicers went to prison crime does pay to big to jail

  82. 20:27 Is he saying to stop paying your mortgage?

  83. how is an annual gain of 2.5% terrible if one gets 0% interest in putting the money in the bank?

  84. "THe ones who lose are the lenders." Well, I don't have a lot of heart for the banks who got a 3 trillion dollar bailout.

  85. I'm missing the perspective of the home owner who is living perfectly fine in his house and has a decent affordable mortgage. You need somewhere to live, as long as you're not wanting to upgrade or planning on moving, this is all paper value nonsense right? Why should the average Joe look at his house as an investment object instead of (shocking I know) a home to live in.

  86. cheaper shelter costs is a huge benefit to most people so let the markets decline. Housing is an expense, a burden, an overhead of life. The lighter the burden, the better it is. North America has too richly priced housing.

  87. Raise rates to 7% and show me how well we've recovered

  88. pitifully myopic

  89. I never bought my home in Colorado to be an ATM! The people around me are paying 500 thousand dollars and that is insane!. I paid half that in 2003. I look forward to the crash in the housing market! when it crashes it just means my Taxes will go DOWN!!! If more Americans bought within their means and planned to stay in that home and retire in it we wouldn't  be in this boat. since I have been here the house to my left went into foreclosure then it was sold 3 times. the house to my right has been sold 4 times. across the street one house sold 4 times the other 3 times. I hope it crashes so far that young people can buy homes again.

  90. finally somebody telling it like it is.

  91. The Youtube real estate investing gurus never talk about it!!

  92. soon the economic collapse will be called a recovery

  93. Lenders?…in this system!?… Fractional reserve banking leveraging, double entry book keeping….What lenders? There is no concideration on the "lenders" part whatsover.. No money was "Lent" by the bank. Shysters lend nothing but a fraudulent contract Obligation for the borrower to pay thrice over, in compounding interest charges, on a fraudulent contract and some double entry book keeping. This monetary system is a ponzi scheme with elite criminals at the top, taking over the country and the culture for greed, destroying all value in the economy, purposely drowning the population in debt, government debt, student debt, credit car, household debt, your whole system in debt service to the banker class.

  94. Lake County Illinois empty houses everywhere, Banks don't list them so people don't see a flooded market, Drive through a subdivision after a snowfall and see how many driveways with no tire tracks

  95. China just printed 51 TRILLION dollars off their balance sheet. And there was a China investment of almost half of it into U.S. and Western stocks and bonds. That means President Xi can destroy our economy with the push of a button. 51 trillion in chinese fake printed money for stocks, bonds, investments. Debt Trapping ? To fund chinese propaganda and war machines ? WTH ? Or Millions of CCP fake business and land investors ? Total BS ? It's a massive relocation or invasion scam that needs to be shot down permanently. Overnight millionaires from china in your back yards all made people ? Ready to treat you like slaves ? All fakes.

  96. Won't someone think about those poor, poor lenders! (AKA, the ones who caused this mess.)

  97. I bought my house cheap as a fixer upper to live in, not to sell. I don't care if the price goes up or down, not plan on selling ever unless i had to. May rent it out one day but living cheap is the way to go, especially when you're poor like me

  98. Doesn't even mention the foreseeable problem of aging boomers attempting to sell their houses en masse, which presumably includes the highest end of the real estate market (300k+).

  99. Lot of ads! Seems to be a blatant video to make money. No real info as govt just prints more money when needed. Stop lying to gullable people

  100. He neglects to point out that the owners who are not paying will be sued by the banks for deficiency judgements when the property is eventually foreclosed on. { the difference between what the bank gets and what the loan plus all fees etc is} Then the owner, who can't pay the judgement will be forced to declare bankruptcy to get out from under the debt.
    So not exactly a free ride!

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