Real Estate Board Greater Vancouver | July 2019 Market Update

Real Estate Board Greater Vancouver | July 2019 Market Update


– Hey everyone, Richard Robbins here. Well the numbers are in
for the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver for the month of July and I’ve got some pretty
positive news for you. And at the end I’m also going to share what’s going on in the
very high-end markets because it’s starting
to turn a little bit, which is a good news for the whole market. So let’s have a look. January through to the end of July, you can see we started
at about 1,100 sales. Of course, as always,
creeps up in February as it does when we move into the Spring. Went up in March, went up in
April, went way up in May. By the way, May is the best month you’ve had so far this
year at 2,638 sales, down to 2,000 sales in
June but look at this, up to 2,557 in the month of July. So if you look at it you see May and July weren’t that far off and
this is somewhat unusual because generally what happens, your strongest month is May, then June comes down a little bit, and then July actually comes down a little bit more because of the summer. But you’re up 23% in July
over the month of June. What about inventory? We started with about 11,000 listings, they start to creep up as they do as we move into the Spring. We got to May, your strongest sales month, we had 14,000 listings. Then we went to almost
15,000 here in June, and then we were below what
we had in May at 14,240. Not unusual either because a lot of people don’t put their home on the market in July or August because of the Summer. So what does that do
to months of inventory? If our sales are way up,
our inventory is way down, it’s going to reduce
your months of inventory. Now again, quickly, how do
I get months of inventory? I take the amount of listings, divide the sales into it, and it gives me the number
of months of inventory. Obviously four to six balanced, above six is going to be a buyers market, below four is going to
be a sellers market, and look where you started the year. Almost 10 months of inventory. Strong, strong, strong, buyers market. Went to 7.8, 7.4, 7.8,
no big difference here, still in buyer market territory, but look at this went to 5.6, which has moved into balanced market, back up to 7.2 and back to 5.6. So right now we’re sitting
in more of a balanced market. The beginning price was $1
million and $995,000 right now. But how does this compare to
the same period last year? So let’s have a look. We did 2,070 sales in 2018. We did 2,560 roughly,
which is up by 23.5%. So not only were we up over June, we are up substantially
over July of last year. Prices, obviously,
started at $1.09 million and we’re down to $995,000. Okay, second month we’ve
been below $1 million, that’s down by 8.5%. Why would this be down and this be up? Because their months of inventory, for most of the year,
have been fairly high. But this is really cool here. So this is your months of
inventory, this is for 2019. You can see months of
inventory we start at 10, then we went down, then we flattened out. Down a little bit, up slightly,
and then down in July. But here is what’s really cool. Look where we cross the 2018 line. This is 2018 right here. So all of a sudden we’re
starting to move below 2018 for the first time this year. This is really good news
because I suspect we’re at 5.6 months of inventory
this year, 5.9 last year, and I suspect we’re going to
start to see it creep down a little bit more and probably come in, maybe, right around 2017
at 3.5 months of inventory, or maybe just above that. But that’s just a prediction. But here’s why I’m predicting that, I want you to have a look at this. This here is West Vancouver. You know West Vancouver, right? Highest real estate prices in Canada, that I’m aware of anyway. But look at this. In 2018 they had 32 sales. Look at this, 2019 they did 43, up by 34%. What about inventory? It was 576, 517, okay, 10%. 18 months of inventory
one year ago, 18 months! We’re down to 12, you know, you can see prices are off by about 10%. Now here’s why I like these numbers. Because when you look at any market, when it’s affected by interest rates, by foreign buyer tax, by different economic factors, what happens is the market
that always suffers the most is going to be the high-end market because there’s less
buyers for that price range and the last to come back
is the high-end market. But what’s starting to happen right now is our market is starting to come back even in the high-end market. What about North Van, look at this. 51 sales last year, 76,
our sales were up by 49%. This is a huge number. 425 inventory, 379, inventory down. Look at this, 8.3 months
of inventory last year, five months of inventory this year. Again, yes, prices are
off because this is, right here, a buyers market. Prices are going to
weaken and are off by 10%. But this is a number I like right here because what’s starting to happen is your high-end market
is starting to recover. And when you see that start to recover, generally speaking that means
that the rest of the markets are probably going to
start to recover stronger because the low-end market recovers first. Inexpensive properties recover first. Now we’ve seen it sort of
going up and down a little bit over the last little while. But when I start to see this happen, this is generally a pretty good indicator, and that’s why what I’m
saying is that I believe that your months of inventory is going to continue to drop a little bit. And again, just a prediction. I was wrong once in my life, it was 1967, but other than that I’ve never been wrong. Just kidding you. But that’s what I see
happening in your market. So I think overall your
market is starting to recover, I think it’s going to
get a little bit better, I think you’re going to
have a pretty decent Fall. Look how much sales were up
this year over last year, it’s a really cool number. So anyway, hope you’re
having a great Summer, wishing you a great Fall, and remember everybody it’s a
beautiful life, make it count.

One thought on “Real Estate Board Greater Vancouver | July 2019 Market Update

  1. Must be Summer… T-Shirt Rich????

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