Property Price Downturn Not Just in Sydney and Melbourne (March 2019)

Property Price Downturn Not Just in Sydney and Melbourne (March 2019)

Australian property prices are in the news
again, as they always seem to be of late. In February 2019, the latest figures from
CoreLogic show that property prices fell a further 0.7% nationally, with Perth and Darwin
experiencing the greatest declines, slumping 1.5 and 1.7% respectively. Sydney and Melbourne both fell 1.0%, while
Hobart was the only capital where house prices went up (by 0.8%). Even places like Brisbane and the regional
centres are running out of steam, both falling 0.3%. In terms of annual growth, or lack thereof,
Sydney and Melbourne are leading the pack with falls of 10.4 and 9.1% respectively. Perth and Darwin have also suffered significant
losses at 6.9 and 5.3% respectively. Hobart is the only state capital to show any
signs of a property boom with a gain of 7.2% over the last year. Personally, I don’t want to live in Tasmania,
so I find that quite surprising. Taking a look now at median house prices. It can be seen that Sydney and Melbourne are
still the most expensive markets at around $789,000 and $629,000 respectively. Canberra comes in next at around $594,000. The other capitals are hovering around the
$400,000 to $500,000 mark. Tim Lawless, head of research at CoreLogic,
says that price falls are now extending well beyond the previously booming Sydney and Melbourne
markets. He stated: “Every market in Australia is losing steam. We are seeing this downturn becoming quite
widespread geographically. I think that’s a real indicator that lending
conditions are throwing quite a dampening blanket over the market entirely.” In addition to tougher lending standards,
Mr Lawless also mentioned some other factors that are potentially hurting the property
market. He said: “We’ve seen a lot of new supply coming into
the market from newly constructed housing, especially in the high-rise apartment sector,
we’ve seen a real slowdown in foreign buying activity and, of course, we’re also still
seeing affordability challenges in markets like Sydney and Melbourne, despite the fact
that values have come down in Sydney now by 13% and in Melbourne by nearly 10% since the
peak.” Mr Lawless also spoke of the increasing number
of properties on the market due to a lack of buyers. Consequently, owners are less likely to want
to sell due to the falling market. He said: “We’re seeing vendors, understandably, are
quite reluctant to be putting their property into the market when selling conditions are
quite challenging. Compared to last year, the number of new listings
being added to the market is down by nearly 20% across the capital cities. But, because properties are taking longer
to sell and we’ve seen buyer numbers fall by around 15% or so over the past year it
means total inventory levels out there are now very high. So buyers have a lot of stock to choose from,
they can negotiate very hard and they can really take their time.” He predicts that in around 2020, prices will
start to stabilise. But of course, we all know the result of predictions
— they usually fall flat. He said: “Probably somewhere in 2020 we’ll start
to see the market levelling out. There’s a lot of moving parts here, and if
we do see interest rates coming down, for example, which seems more likely now than
it was a few months ago, we might see a little bit of extra stimulus come into the market. But the big question there is, even if interest
rates do come down, how much will we see the lenders passing those rate cuts on and how
much effect will it have on the market?” What are your thoughts on Mr Lawless’ predictions? Will interest rates go down? Will markets level out in 2020? Or is the property market just one big bubble
ready to have a giant pin stuck into it? Let me know your thoughts below.

64 thoughts on “Property Price Downturn Not Just in Sydney and Melbourne (March 2019)

  1. i truly believe that Real Estate Prices will fall by as much as 40% to 60% over the next 36 months and it will correct itself, property is almost 100% over valued… in other words a One Million Dollar home today is only really worth around between $300,000 to $450,000 if you compare them with average yearly wages and real estate history

  2. Bubble. 30 to 40% peak to trough falls. Over indebtedness could lead to recession.

  3. It'll go down at a decent pace for the next decade at least, it won't crash quickly it will be a slow painful death. Interest rates will be cut but that will do nothing to help.

  4. Its going to be a bloodbath

  5. Pin then pop

  6. I think Martin North & John Adams would say that Mr Lawless doesn't know what he's talking about…💥

  7. Its a mugs a game at the moment.

  8. Lawless is just doing what obedient industry insiders tend to do. He's trying to keep the masses calm and prevent market panic, and always leaving open the possibility of a recovery in about 18 months. It's so typical.

    In reality, the market will probably continue falling until 2022, and even when the bottom is found, don't expect a sudden recovery.

    Possible RBA cuts in the next year will be as useless as trying to revive a long-dead body.

    This is a bloodbath. It's all about lending, i.e. credit (debt) growth. Unless the banks start lending like they were before, the boom times are not coming back, and there is no indication that the credit floodgates will be reopened any time soon. There is too much bad debt in the system, which will take years to clear out. The banks know it. They've already exposed themselves to great danger. They don't want to go under.

  9. Can't believe Hobart is higher than Perth or Adelaide. Hobart.

  10. I am more interested in blac vue cameras recording vandals vandalising my car and just bought cellink neo to record 36 hours away from my 22 year old VS commodore I have spent a grand on car recording devices ! in Sydney !! and buying body cams with a harness to record everyone from my chest while I’m walking down the road or whoever wants to give my life grief I’ll record them to provide without a doubt evidence from all the dicks in life in Sydney , a new fashion statement maybe an expensive thing to feel safe all this garbage . No one would think my old VS commodore has all the high tech recording gear on board recording even when I’m not near the car , the blackvue front and rear camera cost a fair bit so does the battery packs and then there is the $1800 a year I pay on full comprehensive for a car that cost $1500 5 years , ago SO A WARNING TO ALL WHO FEEL THEY CAN GET AWAY WITH THINGS Because I drive an old modified VS commodore that looks a little beaten up very well tuned as I am a mechanic think again before you can start intimidating me !! And that goes for police as well who think they can do it and make up lies as they do , I will be wearing body cams , and car cams all state of the art , so people think twice because I’m sick of the lot of you and big brother doesn’t do a very good job so I’ll create my own big brother

  11. That person you are referring to, has no clue what he is talking about, he should refer to the nominal and real house prices, adjust to USD or Euro, to get the overall picture.
    Interest rate should go up, 1 USD used to buy 1.2 AUD 6 month ago, today it's equals 1.42, with lower interest rate 1 usd will equals 2 AUD.

  12. 1 million dollar house, has $250,000 land, $45,000 materials, $50,000 labour, and the rest is profits,hype and interest been flipped around between developers, builders, real-estates, brokers, banks, LMI, government, council, and the list goes on and on.

  13. It is already starting to turn around. Get in now or forever be priced out of the market.

  14. Where Hobart? Is it near middle earth?

  15. Locally & globally we are at the end of a long term credit cycle. In the final stages of the cycle quantative easing occurs. The end of the cycle is marked by a very bad depression. This argument is from Ray Dalio.

  16. Interest rate are far too low at the minute. Central banks around the word have no wiggle room.

  17. Someones been drinking RBA Koolaid.

  18. Market will eventually stabilise, without as many foreign buys and investors, the price should drop to a level where locals can afford to buy.

    When the government doesn’t get as much money from realestate transactions, fees and taxes would increase to cover all the existing government expenses. I suspect the council rate and the land tax will rise.

  19. Let's wait and see what Mr Lawfulness has to about that.

  20. These lying economists have no idea , didn't the Unistaters drop interest rates to 0% did that help the economy or house prices ? Not really, the only thing that helped was money printing for there favourites

  21. For the suckers that do have one investment property and above the state central politbureau in melburn has rates land tax rates by 400% in three years and our beloved comrades are doing there job of slowly forcing you to sell one way or another

  22. Australia's economy is based on immigration. Flooding our country with immigrants from the third world destroying our culture & creating high crime rates is now policy for all the major parties.
    Governments always come to the rescue of property, when it comes to our number one policy, housing immigrants, refugees & criminals from the third world.
    The government will do what they always do, come the May election complicit voters will vote labour, the greens & the liberals back in, Then the elected party without the permission of its own people will flood the nation with immigrants, in which socially they won't mix, create minor countries in side our large cities, no one will mix as they all keep speaking their own language. We will have to build more accommodation to house this rifraf. As a result taxation will be increased, we become worker slaves to pay the debt these immigrants create, house prices will rise again & meaning as wage slaves it takes a double income to service our home loan & taxation obligation to support refugees to have 10 children each, while we work, just to get by, we can't afford to have our own children as we pay refugees to have children for us,, because we vote for free stuff, yes the welfare state, but the recipiance of welfare are mainly imported or a result of rewarding divorce , the result is demographic replacement.
    Australia is now a shit hole, it's become an absolute disgusting place to live in comparison to a once great country. A thirty year home loan x two people to pay off. No children as a result, too expensive.
    1950 average house took 9 years to pay off on a single wage, average family had 4 children & new car. Divorce rate was very low & no welfare reward to make single mothers, now the most poplar form of child raring family, paid by high taxation.
    Yes this place is a shit hole, stop deluding your selves, special university educated people who have been threw the leftwing brainwashing indoctrination that keeps pushing a one sided narrative that multiculturalism has been a success, when looking at anidital evidence has been an incredible social failure, even though it's created economic growth, without an improvement to our life style.
    I will add, if you can't run a country on a maximum 10% income tax, than we are being over governed.

  23. Stabilise by 2020, certainly smoking too much weed.

  24. In the magical land of Oz everyone lives in a million dollar mansion and the streets are paved in gold. 👁🥰👁

  25. It's accelerating downwards and starting to spread into the wider economy. As Martin said, adopt the brace position.

  26. When I look at realestate dot com dot au it looks like houses all over the country are over 60% down or MORE!

  27. I think 30% in melb and Sydney. Those with highly negatively geared rentals and high mortgages will suffer the most. Once the recession hits full swing and income stops

  28. 3 bedroom 1 story 1 car park 1 bin home in Australia and Brisbane averages out to be AUD$300-400k

    If you look at the same place in JAPAN or USA its 50-75k

    AU has the HIGHEST cost of living in the west
    Highest cost of internet
    Highest cost of grid power
    Highest "wages"

    All you have to do is check and go inland from Brisbane, its fucking expensive for fucking miles

  29. We need more affordable 1 bedroom
    * units
    * tiny homes
    and cheaper land outside METRO/CITY regions

  30. I cant see AU going past 2020-2025 without going tits up
    rasing tax's and refusing to look at core issues is failing in the ENTIRE EU and WEST currently

    Even JAPAN and South Korea refuse to look at core root issues of population decline

  31. Fertility rate for white women plummets BELOW the limit needed to maintain the population
    in every single USA state

    My Take:
    * Western Population is dropping
    * Western Marriage has FAILED
    * Western Men are WALKING away from Dating/cohabit/Marriage
    * unfair laws stacked in wamans favor
    * GLOBAL SOCIALISM on the rise
    * HATE against MEN and Western Society on the rise
    * ANTI MALE hate on the rise

    My guess is its going to take ZERO population growth and
    ZERO western Straight marriage until they are WILLING to look at the problem


  32. Feminism since 70s
    * Replace Democracy with Socialism
    * women dependent on state for resources
    * women HATE MEN+Democracy/west
    * Misinformation + change words
    * Remove individual accountability for women via
    – abortion
    – No fault divorce
    – Duluth model
    – pussy pass in courts
    – Metoo
    – Kangaroo courts in education/uni
    – Removal of due process+video evidence
    – change concept "consent"
    – Allow "abortion" after the child is BORN , its "her choice" (Feb 2019)

  33. As the economy stumbles and unemployment rises, the retirement tsunami hits and exports drop…crime will flourish, infrastructure will crumble and cities will be even worse shitholes than they are now…Thanks neocons and globalists…The country I cherished seems doomed to US style decay.


    The Lord Jesus Christ will punish those who take our property but
    if we repent and endure this discipline the way Jesus taught us, we’ll get it
    all back. Here is what Jesus says: “Destruction is certain for you who buy up
    property so others have no place to live. Your homes are built on great estates
    so you can be alone in the land. But the Lord Almighty has sealed your awful
    fate. With my own ears I heard him say, “Many beautiful homes will stand
    deserted, the owners dead or gone.” (Isaiah 5:8-9 NLT)

    “And everyone who has given up houses or brothers or sisters or
    father or mother or children or property, for my sake, will receive a hundred
    times as much in return and will have eternal life.” (Matthew 19:29 NLT)

    So, “Let this encourage God’s holy people to endure persecution
    patiently and remain firm to the end, obeying his commands and trusting in
    Jesus.” (Revelation 14:12-13)

  35. They are flooding Australia with third worlders, Chinese, Indians etc. to keep up housing and retail demand.

  36. Positive growth ? Growth is development not value. Are you expecting 10 million a shack are you ? You know what your getting. Market value according to demand. Simple as that. Auction all you want. It will just get passed in. Jazz it up bullshit Block style. It means nothing. Its the land and it's income potential that create value and demand. Not your pile of rubble. The rental income potential of land has pushed the price up. Major metropolitan development has pushed it back down. The rents are decreasing with more places built. Hence the land price decreases. What business is that of yours idiot ? You have a home. Live in it.

  37. i dont want to be sounding negative but if this was the top, then we are looking at 100%+ falls in properties. Fees & taxes & maintenance will go up and over 30 years or so of downturn will add up and equal more loss than purchase price. Hopefully property will be occupied in that time, so at least some benefit.

    Timing is everything.

  38. Real-estate speculation is a chronic drug addiction, except a junkie can always walk away.

  39. Lending conditions and also…the other side of the ledger.

    People have reached debt saturation levels. Only some of them know it….

  40. Daily Rant Australia

  41. I think Mr Lawless is spot on. If RBA drops the Fed rate then best case scenario is the banks keep mortgage rates on hold.

  42. One can purchase a 2B apartment in Miami for 60k. America sneezes.

  43. Why bother?

  44. I bought a house in Moranbah for $125K at a mortgagee auction in May 2016. In 2011 it sold for $680K but a localise crash meant I got an absolute bargain. I'll wait for the correct price to buy in Melbourne after the crash.

  45. Lol, fuckn amazes me that everyone's freaking about house prices… Hilarious! What, you thought you were on a good thing forever?? And didn't see this coming?? Lol, the fuck outta ere…

  46. Property boom carried by the growth of our neighbors (China and Asian countries in our Reagan ) and their investment in our economy by way of our export and invitations to our properties portfolio( Minerals) now that USA and China complaining about declining growth in their economy and frustrated politics of power sharing Australia have come to realise that bringing food on the table is way harder then they endured for the past 25 years. Homeowners have to come to understand to have a roof over your head should not cost all their life to pay back, now buyers are those stayed out due to unaffordability of their families budget found opportunity to be heard loud and with vengeance! The market will go bust to 2001 housing prices ( average Sydney housing prices $400 k -$500 k)for sure and with so much agony for those believe that it wouldn't happen let me ask you this from the Banking sector point of view,,how else would you take Asians billions of dollars invested in Australians property market for past 15 years and create a superannuation portfolio for almost free money… Sell know before you are forced to sell for way less then you can rely on for retirement

  47. They are going to try and keep this fraud going printing money but it will only be blip on the charts. Houses need to be 3 times annual earnings. If a couple makes $150,000 a year maximum house should be $450,000. I think Australia is much like my city of Toronto with prices around $1,000,000 so you do the math, prices are headed to half of their peak value which was 2017.

  48. We are in for a massive recession possibly a currency crisis. So much debt out there.

  49. Australian children have not a chance for future if prices dont come down so dont be greedy and drop them let them start their families and live on with affordable housing

  50. Tasmania is awesome!

  51. I'm wondering about the great North Migration I read about?! I already know a family in Sydney recently sold in Northern Beaches and they recollected with the same company to Brisbane. He sold his house for $2m (paid $900k for it in 2008 with a big mortgage). They bought an amazing home not far the city for a $1.1m and now have no mortgage! Their kids are in a top private School, his wife has decided not to work again. They are also looking to buy a second holiday home at the Sunshine Coast.

    I went to visit and i'm really impressed and also 2 other families in his street did the same but one from Melbourne!.

  52. The Real Estate bubble in the UK also began to burst 3rd quarter 2018, or at least that's when I started to see confirmation signs. The same thing is happening in Canada, USA and of course CHINA. Canada has a lot of Chinese investment flowing to its economy from China which is about to reduce flow by as much as 50% over the next 3 years due to Chinas slowing economical growth. Its possible this trend is also affecting Australia? Meanwhile, the USA government debt to GDP ratio is CRAZY BAD. I wouldn't be surprised if the US government switched to Bitcoin to avoid paying its loans and/or started a war. One way or another a lot of debt is about to be consolidated. Its time to speculate for crypto, real estate, and metals.

  53. 25% sounds real

  54. Tassy is popular as the centrelink retirement home of Australia. [ i.e. the power/weight in numbers distributes the guilt & multiplies the the voter power especially in the senate]

  55. Just like playing monopoly, if you control the money supply, interest rates and can print as much money as you wish, you have then full control of these cycles. Lure as many suckers in as possible, then increase interest rates trapping everyone. You would think that after the 2008 housing crisis in the USA, Australia would be more careful? This mentality 'Australia's economy is too strong to fail' will hurt a lot of people. No stimulus package will save Australia this time (which imo never did anyway) if China goes into recession.

  56. BUBBLE… give it some meds…. start the printing press!

  57. What is the money conversion rate between Australian versus US Dollars? $700k AUD = $496K US

  58. There is an entire generation who look at you with TOTAL disbelif when you tell them Interest rates were once 15% – 17% ha ha bullshit they say . you have a lot to learn little grasshopper ! The family home is for guess who ? —- Families , everyday blue – ( & white ) collar workers. so it's only logical that when house prices rise to a point beyond the financial reach of " Everyday Families " the dominos will begin to fall. And fall they will right back down to a level where " Families " can afford to buy a home and then – around & round in circles we go again….. Its all just a big game of musical houses the banks play every 20 – 30 years and unfortunatly at the end of the game when the music stops everyone looses but the banks ! isnt that a supprise ! ' NOT" as my Dad always said – if you cant pay cash for it – DON"T HAVE IT !! Debt is no more & no less than modern day slavery. and if you dont beleive me – look at all the majior freeways at 6am every working day as the worker ants head off to their shitty jobs to fund their "DEBT" and then at 6PM the freeways are packed again as the worker ants come home & at 6am around & round in circles we go again – FOR THE REST OF OUT NATURAL LIVES ! wake up people its all designed to releive you of every cent you will ever make & keep you enslaved – GREED = A LIFE OF SLAVERY. be happy with less because less really is MORE !

  59. These prices are ridiculous! They are about 100% out of whack (i.e. prices should be 1/2 of what is listed). Clearly, they are the result of unregulated (or corrupt) lending after the collapse of 2008-2009 and the willingness to let foreigners buy into the market. Things are going to get a lot worse once the US "boom" undergoes its inevitable "correction". As an expat, I am glad I left.

  60. China is beginning to retaliate after the hostile attitude of the government towards China. Congratulations!

  61. I was looking to buy a house but it will be wrong to buy now ., just wait it keeps dropping. I was looking at a house valued at 390 now it's dropped to 329. I'm still just going to wait and save

  62. It's not the house it's the land and land taxes greedy developers and government. T

  63. You guys are all wrong…Tasmanians know it all…

  64. Ballarat property value is still going through the roof especially Wendouree

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