Housing Bust Begins? Now Existing Home Prices Drop Year-Over-Year

Housing Bust Begins? Now Existing Home Prices Drop Year-Over-Year

hi everybody we told you this was coming now normally I only do housing updates about once a week but I wanted to make sure I got this one out it's pretty big news so basically Redfin is reporting nationwide home prices now down year over a year and we're going to talk about the difference between the red Flint estimates and the National Association of Realtors home prices in a little bit and today we're talking about existing homes if you were here just a few days ago we talked about big new home price drops down now to the levels that they were about five years ago so new homes have dropped to 2014 levels and then people say well new homes you know they're not the majority of the market most people buy a pre-owned home or what's called an existing home well now according to red fin the price of existing homes has dropped nationwide so doesn't mean home prices are falling in every city no it doesn't but it does mean when you compile all the markets and you come up with a median price prices of existing homes are now down year-over-year alright nationwide and we're going to talk about some of the areas they're seeing the bigger declines but this was reported just a day or two ago this report here is out of housing wire and this represents the first annual decrease in seven years okay now it's just a tiny drop it's not anything that's going to be that noticeable but we had been seeing pretty big price gains year-over-year and we're gonna look at a chart on that here all right so a big part of what we're seeing here is the high end markets basically dragging the median price down because we're seeing prices come down the fastest on the higher end homes in the higher priced markets so the interesting part of this is despite the overall nationwide decline only nine of the 85 largest metropolitan areas saw a year-over-year price decline okay so most cities are still seeing you're over year prices higher than they were but the magnitude of the price traps and the larger cities are bringing down the overall median price according to red Fed now we're going to see National Association of Realtors numbers very soon and if you've been watching this channel we know that the NA our National Association of Realtors numbers typically are inflated and I'm not saying they're falsely inflated but I'll leave you to determine if you think they have an interest in keeping home prices appearing higher than they might already be okay so take a look at a chart right here this is as of March we see a negative number right here that means home prices are lower than they were a year prior nationwide and you may say well that's not a very big drop well it's not but when you look at the price gains that we had been seeing ever since the recovery quote-unquote recovery from the financial crisis we have seen between ten and fifteen percent for a few years and even very strong up until just in the last year or two we had seen between about five and seven percent here from 2014 to 2018 and then of course we saw the big decline that we started reporting on about the end of last fall and we said here that we're starting to see larger than normal seasonal declines and then prices would recover but now prices down from the prior year now redfin chief economist Darrel Fairweather is out there saying quote home buyers have backed off in the West Coast metros where home prices have risen far out of their budgets he also went on to say the opposite is happening in more affordable metros where buyers are eager to buy now to take advantage of low mortgage rates in California where tax burden is high some people are finding they have to move out of state to afford to buy a home as a result home sales are down in metros throughout the state oK we've been reporting on this people are leaving California for many reasons but a big part of it is the high home prices and high taxes and we're likely going to continue to see these price declines in my opinion because debt is still rising faster than incomes wages are not keeping up with the rising prices and debt it keeps increasing okay so back out to California for a minute this is out of LA Daily News and we're talking about existing homes again Southern California home prices fall for the first time in seven years and this sends an 83 month streak of steadily rising prices and again this is existing homes this is not just new homes and we're not just talking about season of the clients we're talking about year-over-year price declines now does this mean that the sky is following that home prices are gonna continue to take bigger and bigger drops well it's not guaranteed but it does mean in certain overinflated markets were likely to see the trend continue because when prices do drop you over a year you typically don't see a big recovery sometimes you'll see it bump up maybe the summer you'll see prices bump up but again the summer you're going to be comparing prices to the summer prior so when you look at your year for example home prices usually peak in June in July but when you compare those to the previous June in July from a year earlier that also gives you a good picture on the direction of the market now we told you that high-end home prices are ones that are coming down first in the fastest so let's go out to the Hamptons now the Hamptons is part of the East End of Long Island and comprises of a group of villages and towns part of South Hampton and East Hampton which together form the South Fork of Long Island and it's a popular seaside resort especially for the wealthy including a lot of bankers and entertainers having homes out there so in the Hamptons the single-family median home price dropped to eight hundred sixty thousand in the first quarter from nine hundred thirty three thousand seven hundred fifty dollars in the first quarter a year prior so the Hamptons folks trying to sell their homes could be seeing a little difficulty as the median home price is down over 70 thousand from a year prior okay let's go out to Connecticut Connecticut sales are down big and also home prices are down year-over-year existing homes the median price was 240 3000 statewide in Connecticut now that sound 1.6 percent from a year earlier where prices were 247,000 now we reported here on this channel about Greenwich Connecticut and the home price traps that we racked up there and of course that high-end market could be also contributing to the overall price decline that we're seeing now statewide in Connecticut okay let's go out to Nevada so this is our Reno because that journal and we see that Reno Sparks median home price are seeing the first price declines now since 2012 so we're talking about seven year period of price gains now has come to an end with existing homes down now where they were a year prior the median house price in Reno Sparks in March was three hundred sixty nine thousand down from three hundred seventy five thousand from March 2018 and this is data from the Reno Sparks Association of Realtors now let's talk about some of the shenanigans that goes along with a hot real estate market and prices that are rising fast well what do you see in the industry you see people making a lot of money real estate agents mortgage brokers loan officers but let me point out an example of how certain people benefit more than others from rapidly rising home prices so Massachusetts mortgage company founder jail for defrauding Ginnie Mae out of 2.5 million dollars so on the surface you say Wow 2.5 million dollars that's a lot of money people that rob banks for thirty or fifty thousand dollars sometimes get 10 20 30 years in prison depending on the judge so what do you get prison time for two and a half million dollars with the fraud is you get 32 months in prison that's all 32 months in prison so mortgage security founder Robert pana gets thirty two months in prison and my guess is he'll probably get off on good behavior and maybe will end up serving half of that so more out of this report here again out of housing wire Robert Payne you plead guilty in 2017 to one count of conspiracy and six counts of wire fraud Pina was charged for diverting funds that should have gone to Ginnie Mae into accounts he controlled specifically pina deposited high dollar loan payoff checks into bank accounts he controlled Pina also took borrowers escrow funds and mortgage insurance premiums for his own personal use okay folks I can tell you there's a lot of shenanigans that goes on in the mortgage industry in the real estate industry in general and something tells me we're going to start seeing a lot more stories about this about people getting busted in these these schemes and it's very easy for people to get away with things like this especially when you have government money and government back loans being thrown around now if you were around for the 2007-2008 real estate bust you probably remember the uncovering of a lot of mortgage fraud a lot of over inflated appraisals and also things like mortgage loans that were given out with extra cash included to give to the borrower for home improvements and renovations which further inflated home prices falsely inflated I should add ok so not too many surprises things are kind of playing out exactly or at least similarly to what we've described what would happen we saw the high end market start to come down first the price of new homes come down first and it doesn't mean this is going to spread it could just mean that people are migrating from these high priced areas from the larger cities especially on the coast into more Middle America where prices are lower where the tax burden is lower and there could be cities that may not even see price traps you know throughout this next bare market downturn correction whatever you want to call it but that's about off of the support thanks everybody for watching please give us a thumbs up if you got anything from this if you liked our reporting it does help the channel and keep an eye out for the videos from our channel please because we do hope to see here next time and we hope you're staying above water thank you very much for watching bye now you

23 thoughts on “Housing Bust Begins? Now Existing Home Prices Drop Year-Over-Year

  1. What do you think. Is this national YOY price decline the start of a housing correction or will they keep it inflated with more QE and dropping of interest rates? Links to news sources from today's report are here: https://bullboom.blogspot.com/

  2. Let's go!

  3. YANG 2020….

  4. My property value just went up 13k in the last 2 weeks… Cali 🤷‍♂️

  5. I should sell now, then wait for the bottom to fall out then rebuy on the cheap

  6. Housing prices run in cycles. Just like everything else. One thing for sure is, U.S. homes will have a higher value in 10 years and will have a higher value still 20 years from now.

  7. Interest Rates kept at near Zero since 2007 until 2017 then increased (with perhaps a six month to eighteen month delay built in).

    You increase interest rates you decrease housing prices.

    (Potential Mortgage Payment = Principle + Interest + Taxes + Insurance)

  8. Some homes may be overpriced in some areas, but im not sure why your all getting excited like as if homes will drop down to the 5$ you have saved up. Do you have any idea how much it costs to build a home? So no matter the market, there is always a hefty price.

  9. Wait i have 2 more houses to sell. WAaaaaaIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  10. Youtube keeps unsubbing me.

  11. I just saw a 4.5 million dollar home in California price drop to 1 million.

  12. Jason, spoke with a mortgage company yesterday told me that CALIFORNIA and COLORADO were their top two foreclosure states in their portfolio. I've been saying for awhile that Denver will fall really hard soon. Thanks for the information can't wait till you start reporting the foreclosure increase when it becomes noticeable.

  13. There are shacks around santa rosa going for a million. Cmon folk, .take a drive around there. homeless all over.

  14. reno real estate prices have become a joke. There is not enough difference in price to make a move. Shacks up there selling for 300- 4ook. bs

  15. No big deal just a leveling

  16. Here in the UK the corruption within our housing industry knows no bounds.Recently I saw a house for sale and approached the estate agent/realtor,we were summarily assured it had already sold.Further investigation revealed the seller to be a mature lady under duress from her family to downsize,their business,yet the house was being sold for less than those in adjacent plots.It is transpiring than the "new owner"intends to convert to flats/apartments and guess which estate agent/realtor will be representing these ideal opportunities?In the interim mortgage availability is dropping in the area.OUCH!

  17. Home prices in mass are going up even mobile homes even homes in the hood

  18. It’s starting in the Far East and working to the Wild West.

    I’d like to see a global housing update.

  19. Going up till boomers start seeing the pearly gates

  20. I work at a credit union in So Cal and the poor residential lending sales mgr is under so much pressure because he is 20mill behind goal YTD.

  21. Why no more music intros.? they were the best!

  22. At the height of the housing market in 2007 Real Estate agents were telling everyone to buy, buy, buy, hahahahaha

  23. If you want to live in a house find one you like and can afford. Don’t buy into all this hype. You need a place to live right? The house you live in is not about making money. It’s your home and if you’re happy with the price so be it. Study the market. Make an informed decision and buy the house. If you’re an investor then this info might be beneficial.

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