Fraser Valley Real Estate Board | July 2019 Market Update

Fraser Valley Real Estate Board | July 2019 Market Update


– Hey everyone, Richard Robbins here. Well the numbers are in for the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board and I got some pretty decent news for you so let’s have a look at the numbers then I’ll summarize for you at the end. If we go to January, we have 784 sales, and it gets– of course they always go up, up, up, May, the best month you’ve
had so far this year with 1,500 sales, then we dropped down in June to 13 and then back up in July to 1,458. So look at this, July actually we did 11.6% more sales than we actually did in the month of June. Now that’s relatively uncommon because generally what happens is June will tail off
a little bit from May, but then July will tail
off a little bit from June. So this is all very very good news. What about Active Listings, we had about 6,000 in January, of course it goes up you know as it does in the spring to 6400 to seven to 7,800, 8,506 8,516 and then it drops in July so again, this is all cool stuff, so if you look at it our Active
Listings are down by 2.1% and our sales are up by 11.6%, so what would that do to
our Months of Inventory? It’s gonna drop our Months of Inventory which means it’s
strengthening the marketplace. How do we get Months of Inventory? You take he Active Listings and divide the sales into it and it tells you how
many Months of Inventory. So look at this, we started the year at
7.6 Months of Inventory, more of a buyers market right here, 6.5 because above 6 is a buyers market below 4 is a sellers market, 6.5 still more of a buyers market. Then it went to 5.7, 5.7, 5.6, balanced market, 6.5 and then back to 5.7. So if you look at it you can see right here you’re moving down a little bit from what we were earlier
in the year which is good. What about prices? Right now we’re sitting at 711,000 we started the year at 663. So when I look at all this I say “you wanna know something? Your market is starting
to recover fairly well” which is all good news. Look at it, if we take this 2018, last year we did 1,290 sales, we look at July of this year we did 1,458, we’re up by 13%, so your sales are up pretty substantial form the same period last year, prices obviously are off, we went from 770, we went down to 711 which is down by 7.6% and you say “well why
would our prices be down and our sales up?” Why? Because, look at your Months of Inventory. Remember if you’re above six, your into buyers market, right? So we started the year here at almost eight Months of Inventory. So you can see, we ended the year right here. This is 2018, look how much inventory, we’re up around 7 almost
8 Months of Inventory. Your prices are gonna be
weakening at this point. So what’s star– we started here and then all of a sudden
Months of Inventory drops okay, it flattens out, up slightly then drops again, we’re exactly where we were last year, this yellow line is 2018. July 19, 5.7 Months of Inventory, July 18, 5.7 Months of Inventory, Now I suspect, I suspect you’re gonna come in underneath our Months of Inventory of last year and if that happens that means your market is starting to strengthen. Very nicely by the way. So look at this, this is interesting, I went back and I pulled it 2010. In 2010 in your market you did 1101 sales we did 1458. In 2010 you had almost 11,000 listings this year we had 8,300. Months of Inventory was 9.9 in 2010 which was a difficult market by the way, 5.7 right now. So pretty good! So a lot of people are saying
how tough the market is, are you kidding? It was tougher before, look our average price was 450, now we’re at 711, so in like 9 years, your prices are up pretty substantially. So here’s what I suspect, this is my prediction, I’ve only been wrong once in
my life and there goes 1967, I’m just kidding you of course, I’ve been wrong many many times but, here’s my prediction. You’re gonna see August will probably be a little bit off from July, that’s fairly normal, kids going back to school, people enjoying their holidays, that sort of thing. But I suspect September,
October, November, I think your sales are going to be up, quite a bit over what they were in 2018. So I think you have some opportunity. And I would also say there
is a strong possibility you’re gonna move into more of a very weak weak weak sellers market. Maybe get around that
four months you know, 3.8 Months of Inv–
3.5 Months of Inventory and you’re gonna be starting to move back to a much better market to work in. Why? Rates are down, right? So rates are starting to come down again, which is very very interesting. So no matter what’s been
going on in the past, I think if you just hang in there, work hard, I think you’re gonna see
a pretty healthy fall. Anyway hope this was helpful. Remember everybody, it’s a beautiful like, make it count.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *