Boston Basic Income #28: The Housing Market

Boston Basic Income #28: The Housing Market



that you posted something else okay we are live welcome to our weekly basic income discussion group today we are talking about the housing markets and we listen to before the discussion listened to a Planet Money podcast entitled yes in my backyard and it talks about Sonia Travis and her story as a chrome housing approved development activist in the Bay Area so podcast itself does not records basic income but I know that at least I have some opinions about how a basic income is related to the housing market so I want to start by just going around and asking people what they think about the housing crisis and whether whether basic income you know how basic income factors in freedom in terms of maybe addressing it or if we have a basic income how it would impact the housing crisis chiweenie tree saw sales again one like no need okay yeah you can if you want um so I don't know a lot about the housing housing presidents on but my like my intuition is that the that there's plenty of land around in least in the United States and so what seems to be missing sometimes when prices are getting too high are enough places that are developed at the level that you fall like in terms of what people are looking for which could be living close to a job but could also be living close to like being able to walk to cafes or having people around that they can meet to date or having you know parks or whatever it is that people that doesn't that make it unappealing to live in you know rural you know upstate North Dakota or something like that where there's probably really cheap housing you know so whatever is making a housing expensive in terms of the actual amenities and think teachers at the location seem like things that could be built up in a lot of other places and so that seems like the the most fundamental solution is trying to look make more areas be built up at a level that people enjoy and correct not more than that because it also can get to that point where it's really data that's kind of unpleasant for people too in terms of basic income you and I have talked about this a bit but I think a couple things so one it could mean that fewer people are trying to live near particular jobs so that might make it easier to build up other kinds of locations with the other kinds of amenities that people like and obviously it affects it's it's an income that at least as you describe it it's independent of the cost of living where people are so it would be a damn though it would decrease demand for expensive areas of increased demand curve for less expensive areas that would have an effect yeah all right yeah I mean I I read this book jobs by David Graeber and there was like a line in there where he says you know universal basic income might be a good idea but you would have to have you know you'd have to somehow have regulations to keep the landlord's from just taking it all by raising them everyone they were just raise rents suddenly and I've you know it's I think it's no I don't know how economists make these kinds of do the analysis or make the predictions but it does seem but does seem to me like that it does seem like that might be something to worry about but uh but I'm interested in how to yeah game it out yeah yeah I I kind of before I got interested in the basic income stuff especially him now I had been kind of following some of these discussions about you know a formal housing and this will be movement that sort of started and I can see the the it's definitely need it's in what seems clear to me is and there's certainly a need or more construction in cities because just physically like you said people want to live in you know potentially for all kinds of reasons live you know and there's a limited amount of space you get to put people somewhere to me the question is how do you get the how do you do that how do you build construction in such a way as it doesn't automatically turn so gentrification poll and so it seems to me that like one hand it's very attractive to sort of say well we should just like open things up and let it you know let that let the sort of free market sorted out but I think is they point out in sort of mentioned in passing in the podcast but also in that other piece that that can easily because that's what's gonna happen is it's going to always be at the top end typically or where it happened so the notion the new construction we have a luxury apartments luxury condos are going to be the thing that you know so all right so I think I don't know how this we connect stupid income but it seems to me that like Nick said there's a problem there gonna be an immediate problem is is if you did supply it in a hot house market like San Francisco or even now Boston that that could easily be sort of gobbled up so it seems to point to beliefs in my head to to kind of like up yeah like a it has to be part of just one part of a number of different kind of solutions for for housing and and I know housings are really tough intractable problem and I think it seems to be it's one of the things that kind of gets left out in one of these debates about about of we talk about you know all kinds of other it's all we're not social a problem but housing is like the common thing that's it's really tough because there's trade-offs and in there then it's really hard so I don't know I'd be interested to talk about more about how basic income I haven't really given it but trying to feel that about how they could fit in but seems to me that like it's gonna be it isn't quite as a lie neatly aligned as other issues I would like sort of if there's a clear kind of thing like work with everybody benefits and housing it's kind of like there are some zero-sum games I know when I quit doing that two years ago here in Boston there was a ballot initiative that I believe passed it there's 10 or 20% of each new bill building that was constructed or something building had to be affordable housing so I'm not sure how exactly that work out but sounds like a good idea and in Washington DC there's a program where it's sort of basic income related that is people who qualify get $7,000 and if they've to decrease thoroughbreds each year and after seven years they can withdraw up to $28,000 of that from the the pool of money that they if they left if there was anything left over from decreasing their rent so they haven't put it toward the rent thinking the draw the rest okay sorry say it gives you the Helmand you can put 20% are you like that ballad emission is that that you're said about the how much you could put towards your 7000 dollars per year okay I am up to $28,000 over seven years right my mom was a live stream and she said yes if you have a basic income you might not need a job so don't need to be hearing but you wouldn't need to be near things like hospital grocery stores etc as bethany says be near stuff that counts is important for quality of life otherwise you could easily live in a cabin the stuff you need to be near won't be there without people working even if it's not you I think that's right and I think I agree with I agree with what Bethenny said that basic income gives people more freedom to live the more places we're just kind of what my mom is saying that can help help take some of the pressure off housing prices so we only look at that effect you would kind of expect you know the how the apartment to crash would be really rich really densities and prices to come down but how do you adjust is there a way to estimate how many people would take advantage of that like actually it move away from Boston I'm in Springfield it did it depends on a lot of factors not the least of which is how much basic income are we giving people right and then how much basic income to give people will partly depend on you know well how much positive positive effect again so it might partly depend on how people respond to you know changes in you know needing to be in here the job market stuff like that right it's a little bit yeah I mean I think one thing that's that's sometimes brought up but it's not often the main is that the housing market and the labor market are very very tightly linked to each other people do need to live near where their jobs are and Richard and I went to a Kennedy School forum a few weeks ago where there was a guy there talking about how to fix the housing market and you know basic income was brought up in the discussion but he was really he was he wasn't really talking about basic income in this context but he was talking about how silly he was talking about zoning and and you know like you you make it easier for people to you know develop housing and then it's easier for people to live near where the jobs are and the market can only be efficient if you know the laborer is able to go where it needs to go and the whole housing thing and all these regulations were kind of getting in the way of labor mobility of Labor going to where it needs to go so he was really emphasizing the connection between the housing market and the labor market especially with respect to housing market restrictions but he didn't he didn't mention kind of the connection with basic income there which which really changes where you need to go if you're a laborer where you need to live so I think that's that's a huge huge effect do you think there could be a kind of counterbalancing effect like are there some people who would say oh I always wanted to live near Harvard Square I couldn't afford it before but now with this basic income no maybe I can live there right I mean there might be there and maybe those would cancel each other out as mature um and also you know if Harvard Square gets a lot a lot cheaper to them like oh now I can afford it not only do I have the basic income but also the rent is cheaper so no you tend to be fairly confident that the net effect it's going to be in the direction of evening out prices can you explain why it would like counteract in the way that things yeah I mean it would a little bit like there'd be some people who follow that logic but I think when you know when you take the broad view you have to think okay there are these areas that are really expensive and there are some areas that are really cheap and then as far as people go there are some people who are indifferent between living in the cheap area or the really expensive area they're really expensive areas more expensive but it's also got these other benefits so there's some people who are kind of on the fence now you have a basic income into the mix the basic income improves the quality of life more in a cheaper area than it does in the more expensive area because your money stretches further so now we can imagine that in an aggregate you would expect there to be a greater incentive to move away from the more expensive areas to the cheaper areas so that's kind of like the logic that I have in my head so I guess in that model it sort of assumes that if I mean I think you mentioned something about that before that like Nashville the rent is lower but does it kind of assume that the your salary is gonna be lower in the same proportion or something I mean if you're right your salary is gonna be lower but your basic income is not it's going to be the same wherever you live so is that true that salaries are lower and rents are lower because they're really I like I bet if we did a correlation even up like minimum wage in a city or a state versus like the cost of housing they attract each other an average wage and a whole bunch of other things I would guess what I would don't know right but but I think you're you're you're right with the other part of what you said where if you had a city like San Francisco where the housing is really expensive and then we just gave everyone in San Francisco a basic income then it's you know like there's a good chance that it's just going to drive up prices of houses right now I can also imagine an effect where maybe there are some people who have some money who kind of had no money before and they're either on the street so maybe you could create some demand on the lower end like the price to the prices so that would create an opportunity for profit for developers there so that might create an incentive to to build cheaper housing even in so alright although the podcast count points out that the like what's limiting housing development San Francisco is not like demand for housing well it depends so there are some so so you can think about the kind of slope of the demand curve and if there are some people if the prices are up here and there are some people who can only afford what's down here if there's more people who want to buy houses at this level down here that's not really gonna pull pull prices down but if there is you know more people who want to buy houses that are really expensive than that might lead to more more development but it also is not really going to pull prices down whereas if you give people more incomes and boost them that can flatten out the demand curve a little bit and then and then you know it can start to become more profitable to produce more units that were slightly cheaper in that period I mean obviously there's a lot of other factors besides this like you can imagine a world in which some people have money and some people don't have money and you're building or you're making products or the people have money and you're not making any products with the people who don't have money so the people have money suddenly have more money to spend because you know their jobs start paying more stuff like that thing you'd expect prices to increase but if instead of that the people who didn't have money suddenly start to have money then instead of prices increasing you might start to see one of these increasing more of those built in produce or finding ways to build some more smaller housing units that you know have lower drafters of things like shipping containers that they're converting into houses and there's like and pieces like Tokyo there are like capsule hotels which are really tiny places that you can stay for the night and there's also 3d printing of houses is starting to take off yeah so that lowers construction cost which means there could be more houses by the same developer yeah so all of this stuff you know would be create the problem is if if it's if the economy is such that it's more profitable to build a bigger luxury unit its and you're actually gonna make more money on to doing that than building you know for smaller units even if it's you know these cheaper methods you know that they're gonna build the bigger load three unit they're not going to build it for smaller units because those people are even though the construction is to the right you're gonna get is not opportunity that creates I said make that point it like that there's something about the housing to sign up market to some degree or housing I should say our housing market but just to talk about more portly that not isn't gonna be solved completely by market-driven solutions like in my head like that's one of the things that Matt Bruni points out is that you know those high germs like social housing where you like you basically build a large number of you don't think the government's done that pasta can do it again we have these different alternative like weights of other ship that aren't necessarily based on you know like and development coming in and building things and that might be a part of something we you know I mean that's not really that goes beyond the basic income training but the point is that you can more easily rent one unit at five thousand dollars then for you know or one unit four thousand other than four units of a quarter-sized what doesn't exactly that's great yeah if the if the if the income disparity is that big like if we've just got like a really large population report people and then like a decent sized population of rich people and there's not like someone can tell you nothing yeah so why is that the case in fairness good things if you have some range I mean there is some rage I'm just thinking from from the perspective of a developer or from the perspective of a land even how do I make the most profit and if there is profit to be made in dividing a single unit into two units and charging a little more than half the rent for the bigger unit then I'm going to do that because I'm greedy or I want to make a profit right so so this is kind of it's it's less a story of like oh I'm seeing this in San Francisco it's more story I'm thinking about it from the perspective of developers like there are a lot of people crowded into apartments that doesn't seem to maybe I'm misunderstanding but people generally have roommates in box them in exam at Cisco I'm like you do have three or four people a small apartment yeah I mean I think that's great so even small label they pack them even more than they did 20 years ago yeah yeah well is this basically places in summer South of Market where the kind of warehousing program is like technical now like it's almost like warehousing Emma over exaggerating but they're really yeah they're kind of like bid they're really like what we used to be like you know they get paid like pretty good salaries by like national standards but it's just so expensive and they just have to fit like not quite many hotels but and yet I think anything is the last item there Iceland and San Francisco so you know it's definitely become a yeah it's become really lopsided like there is a lot of like the distribution of wealth is really like there really isn't that that middle yeah okay so you're saying that yes that could be part of the answer so maybe the developers are developing these units and then you know maybe occasionally there's a rich couple that moves in and hasn't units of themselves but then most of the time you know it's like I'm gonna get people cramming themselves in there and then that's still profitable for landlord so that could be the answer for why why fewer units are being built because you can kind of use a big unit as you know you know a home for multiple people yeah yeah so I don't have a lot of friends who are heavily some friends who say you know the answer is just to build more and more and more I don't know if that's the answer I know you know when they add so I read somewhere here I read this when they added names to a highway to kind of alleviate the traffic juice demand yeah it induces demand so then you know a couple years after they got a lot of lanes the traffic is just that it was before if not worse and I can imagine that for you know a city like San Francisco to you know we just build more houses now you know there's more more room for people to move in and maybe if all the cities in the world did this at exactly the same time and add capacity then it could help like if you if you widen that you can add at least every road in your city and maybe that would help with traffic but if you're adding links to just this one road then people start using that road so one like people can choose more easily not to driver the drive then they can choose like not to be in a house or house so the induced demand might have to do is people not taking public transportation not carpooling not like and I'm not sure if that's analogous with housing completely well not living in another city I think there are a lot of people who you know choose not to live in San Francisco but look like or anything but then I guess the other thing I would say is like the u.s. it's like there's enough of a very good moving to another country that we can sort of think of the United States you know if there was general capacity built in terms of where people's like bases being but where people wanted to live in the United States it seems like that would be you know a decent answer and I guess that's where I go back to like not just cramming people into already dense places which seems like it's gonna just make everybody's quality of life kind of worse in some way but just making more of the city's like a bit more built up till they're at the point that people who would otherwise not want to move there maybe they're like happy to move there now because there's no things to do enough people to need and just make more clear kind of place for new cities or like expanding yeah thanks for the extra roads or whatever example you don't typically have to like knock down houses or something like that's extreme but would but there's articles now that automated I made cars that you could shrink the number of well parking lots and the crease the number of will grow the size of roads and you can create more green space link or housing or more houses exactly yeah so that's certainly certainly a possibility you know we don't need giant parking structures I don't think most people think giant parking structures are like beautiful mega Mart's in their city or whatever it may be there's a special parking structure somewhere something but you know you replace a parking structure with more by the tunnel units that's I don't think anyone's gonna complain about that yeah maybe the few people who are still driving cars or something yeah I wonder if or like at least um this is a again maybe gilded up basically on topic but it kind of could be related is that it seems to me that there's like a lot of a knob below not just us but also global that you have like these like even with the internet was supposed to be decentralizing it's sort of ironically made more it's more now attractive to go to like one that like you know where's like before you might get interesting jobs in like top fifty US cities now it's like you know New York San Francisco Boston and it's sort of concentrating those wealth and power in those places yeah and so like sort of I feel like that I don't have a really good model for exactly I was might work but it seems to me at some level that process is sort of like to to kind of undo that to you is you need like tools that go beyond just kind of like what with what we used up until recently in the last twenty years like sort of you know how like housing I see develops and so I don't know that base income might be like like you said part of that but I could think that so it's a really tough challenge that I don't know with we as a society thought that much about fixing like how do you prevent they can you stop liking not stop that you know what is the how do you alleviate at least the bad effects of that of that that concentration of what I keep trying to think about it's like why does everybody want to live in these places and how much of that could be built like somewhere else and how would you do that right because like it doesn't I can't pinpoint anything that isn't mostly a snowball effect you know for example Boston has bad weather or something it's not like it's just like things that are part of the geography that you like can't change there's things like waterfront views and stuff that I like that but like in general it just seems like you have this snowball effect of like building up culture in different places and jobs on the lemon yeah people wanted people want to go towards you know like like-minded people I don't think there's a great book called which I keep coming back to because I see that effects were popping up a few years ago there's actually about ten years or melts called the big sword oh yeah I build fish – there's no that one I really fascinating basically did all the statistical analysis to show that you know over since the 70s people are basically just kind of like you know we're just sorted ourselves in these kind of my time you see reflection politics it's it's it's kind of like what you're getting at I know it seems to me like even if people are self assorting there's no reason the geographical area couldn't be bigger or the there couldn't be more cities that yeah they want to sort – so it's kind of like I wonder what I mean I think some of this is already happening like you see different cities become people places people going to go more and more like a Colorado or Portland OR Seattle you know like like it happens it just happens kind of slowly yeah so I don't know what we could what work what kind of policies would sort of speed it up right and what they said in the podcast about somebody did an estimate that you know San Francisco could have grown twice as bad I'm saying the economy couldn't run choices right if it weren't for this these limits but if it had maybe Portland and these other places wouldn't be right growing and getting more interesting I mean maybe maybe even though it's you know it's not pleasant when you're living through it maybe it's actually better than some of the alternatives like like if there was some like magical technology that could you know dig really deep skyscrapers into the ground and like super fast elevators like if this weren't an issue right then maybe like we'd have just one big city right like everyone would have moved to New York by now except the I think there's like it seems like there's some cost to being like too dense for some people like like New York is too dense for some people and some people really want to be in a place that dense and stuff like that so it feels like there would be some sort of preference that would drive some people out to where they could have more so that doesn't mean that you can't live around the edges of New York City right slightly less those areas and still have one central well but it's just gonna be still pretty dense until you're pretty far away I mean you could have one central hub but it that seems unnatural seems to make more sense for people's preferences to have like smaller hubs like people in other words then you're choosing between super-dense or your Ruby far from any hub and why happen I think about that article that I read for the climate you know that climate the environment and he was talking about split in New York City and cities I'm having like different like so you'd have like the mean other than there'd be like exactly how the various boroughs and you know check yeah I can imagine so so I think we can still get like people wanting to live in like a hub that's not like the biggest hub ever I still think we can kind of crane that into a pretty small geographical area either way but I just see no reason for it all be to be around one make a hub in terms of the big impact on the environment you like the little things I mean that's my well they're in like North Dakota that there is actually your computer converting old missile silos into comm Hondo's and they since you're underground there so they're create artificial windows like big-screen TVs they could pretend to be outside and then like in the resident they creates like a they pool of Sciences the thinking that they're looking outdoors really so giant underground like research facility facility like um like a like a matrix but not not a not plugged into it right and they never go outside with scientists like don't ever tell me another thing from is that you are so he says it's not random regarding which cities attract people to live in them in Boston the colleges are a big draw in New York City the financial sectors same banks for the textile sector etcetera yeah meaning that's right and I think Bethenny said is right to that you know we build up all this stuff in various kind of pubs and then there's kind of a feedback or snowball effect that build themselves if you've got good colleges and now you have their restaurants you know you have a good other stuff you have good you know entertainment you know like and it just you know kind of this nature ologist yeah yeah exactly but yeah yeah so then you know a question we might might ask is how do we spark this effect and I don't think the answer is yeah you know if we build houses then suddenly people will call the houses there nobody sorry spark which effect the snowball effective you've got a city that's that's got all these different great things that people like to kind of depend on each other we're like boot that up true I mean how do you see the city yeah like basically you decrease demand for San Francisco because you've also got a tech hub in yeah well I mean that's basically are they trying to do in Australia I remember when I was growing up and so rueland in my 15 to 20 there was a lot of talk about they we're gonna build something like this I was called the multifunction Paulus mfp and it was a big deal and they were really and they had a site and they had it all ready to go and then it all just kind of fizzled and I don't know what huh end up happening to that but they really the government was really keen to build something like that I was like I feel like there was an era when people were talking about doing that you don't really hear that I think Brazil is capital Brasilia there's Ilyas designs and it exists as a city it's not successful in the way they want to do no but then I wonder if that's because that might suggest that it's hard to do this like top down so it's just like so complex to try to figure out all the things that and you're organically arising yeah yeah so so my hunch is that you know cities did emerge like they may amount of somewhere and so there are factors that that facilitate you know the emergence in cities or of existing towns and cities and stuff like that yeah and I think without having to answer the question of what specific thing is you know a city needs in order to start accelerating in growth we can know how to facilitate that by giving people more freedom but where they live right right so I think I think that's a big big part of the basic income yes so I want to try playing a clip from the podcast so we're gonna see if this works I was gonna I was gonna say a part of the conversation we have really talked about thus far who's sort of talking about how people making choices to live as if we're kind of like rational actors are considered of like makeup you know I ran over a list and for a lot of and that may be true for probably a lot of people in this room and for a lot of people sort of in the upper middle class and everything but a lot of the real problems of gentrification is that we're dealing with people that just think there's no really there's nothing of a choice right that was a to the next comment I was gonna make it like one thing that like helps the problem solve itself is if people have the capacity to move which takes like startup funds it's just like like you have to have some money to move yes the cultural capital and some economic a yes so you can't really get take the pressure off the housing demand anywhere and maybe basic income could be part of that right nice nice these for the financial sort of part of it and I mean another thing that maybe helps with that is if instead of thinking of it as like moving to a faraway City you're kind of expanding the city of it or like making a new hub that's pretty close so like you're not trying to move to a totally far away part of a place that has not near any of your friends or family right yeah see that's another thing I was when when your whenever I kids or there's always this discussion about I can't afford to leave my job people say well so we'll just go and live in a cheaper city and right you know that's you tell it doing that you know ripping people out of their you know their yeah network of relations and that's like that's or there's yeah conversation – why do people want to stay where they are yeah but there are also people who don't necessarily need to stay where they are except that they can write down and that's what that and some of reading the paper about people were displaced because they couldn't afford to stay and I was like this place is terrible you can't afford to stay and if you want to leave you can't afford to leave because you can't save any money because moving costs they just felt so grim yeah I think she doesn't have the money to leave so I think for someone like Sonia Krauss this is Soviet ask for someone like her if she did for the people she's talking about you know if there is someone who wants to leave but can't afford the moving costs then the basic income this is a way out and it doesn't just do the cost it also means you have an income where do you go right so then like like you don't maybe have to put up as much as money upfront stuff like that Brooklyn lurks might not be is worried about it exactly and earlier she was talking about you know calculating her real age like 20 dollars an hour Corinne but yeah you know she realized that due to her commuting cost she was really only making 1215 hours that she couldn't job her job and started the job worth angry how I was thinking 12 1250 an hour yeah you know you can make the same kinds of calculations yeah do you want to throw this pending reporting so yeah so you can make the same kinds of populations with a basic income now you know your your bottom isn't zero your bottom is whatever the basic income is yeah so so this issue is not brought up really that much later in the podcast but I wanted to get out here just because because it's really something where you can see like the effect of basic income would be pretty substantial yeah yeah and it gives you more flexibility if you're between things or you want to go through a career change or you're like one of downscale or something like that then you wouldn't have to you know would be an all-or-nothing thing all right yeah I mean it seems to me like if the people on the low end of the income bracket that would move away from expensive places the fastest with the basic income and maybe I'm under estimating something's like the social factors but it just seems like if you're the price differentials across the United States are so big that if the basic income was most of your income like your quality of life would change so much living somewhere where rent was like $250 instead of like $2,000 yeah also public transportations considerations that's true yeah like we're not living in New London Connecticut they well outside of it you couldn't really go into though the public education was so and they didn't start until like 10:00 a.m. so you can really have jobs yeah so I guess that's another thing in terms of like what attracts people to in place we're talking about yeah and you know something like uber which cost a bit more the public transportation but is a lot more flexible you know if you have a basic income maybe you can afford to move around the rose a lot and gives you a lot more for not just freedom to spend money but for him to go places and free to move around well that reminds me also like I guess part of what would happen to housing depends on what would happen to the job market with a basic income yeah because like if you don't you know if you don't have to go regularly like every day back and forth your transportation needs for example are lighter and if you in general like I wonder how much of what attracts people to these different cities is the jobs versus all the other think about them and your mom was bringing that up to it like the different sectors that are in the different places yeah so when when people say you can't just live in this you just can't live in the city without a car a lot of times what they're saying is you know they're they're assuming that you need a job and you've got to commute to your job than they're assuming that you got a threatened or three store and buy your groceries if you don't get a job you can Cooper around you know on whatever nights you want to go places and important days and you can order your groceries you know on Amazon fresh or whatever you know like that maybe maybe the same place you don't need a car it would basically go well all the democratic socialism think it looks like a God guarantee is highly likely so that might push down all the needs all the well there are people at the corners that people are going to earn like thirty six thousand dollars and that might well eliminate the startups and things like that because then they can't afford to pay thirty six thousand dollars and they can't afford life insurance and that lectures up health insurance but well there were kind of some shows they want to have universal health care so that would be priests another the demands but if you're going to have such high wages you're going to eliminate a lot of jobs to begin with so here that's another me that's why some people want a basic income and the job guarantee at the same time yeah jobs guarantee is is really there's really tricky and and you know there are a lot of issues that I have with it and one of them is do we really want to be making up work for people to do it excuse me the money and I feel like you're you're taking away people's freedom as a way to you know have reason for paying them and that really feels kind of backwards to me and obviously jobs guarantee you know now everyone still has to commute to their jobs so some of the environmental emissions benefits of it because again come kind of go away because you know maybe as Richard is saying you know all these other jobs might disappear because they can't compete with to guarantee jobs but everyone's still gonna have a job and you know you're gonna have all the negative effects of that along with it well maybe this job's wouldn't be necessary the traditional kind of jobs that report we require comedian I mean I mean I'm not arguing either way I'm just thinking out loud here like yeah maybe that I but I did I take Charlie still for all the ladies is something yeah well it's a good issue gives will shades into a community service then and how do you that you to incentivize that you to be like something the people of you know that's the pretty question I don't happen to feel for the right thing my intuition is kind of like yours which is kind of like yeah the sort of creating jobs for the sake of it just seem a little but maybe there's something about it that I'm not that there's maybe there's a kernel the under in there that's worth pursuing well I like to separate you know they're kind of two things we expect from the labor market one is that it provides workers with money and then the other is that it allocate labor efficiently so certainly I can sympathize with people who say what we want to incentivize people to do more community service etc etc and I would say okay then let's let's pay for that and let's do what's needed if you convince me that this is what's necessary but that's different from saying we need a way to get people money and let's close talk come up with an excuse for why they're doing work that's worth paying for something like that that field backwards to factor that how they can want to sort of the subsided people having more jobs but having less again I was thinking about how some how many people remove when they retire which suggests that like even including the fact that people like to stand near their family or like to live in certain places like you see a lot of people feeling like they can snoring yeah yeah when you when you actually don't have to be nerd-off that's a big time at which people do on average so that just suggest that you might see a lot of movement if people didn't have more time to a particular location for theirs for their job I think they might shuffled around presumably based and and retiring you to use a less income no you know yeah but anyway it you you if you had also been income effect you're talking about fun people tied to your job my intuition is if we had less need to build society around jobs period like how are we to find them then we a lot of other things that we take for granted will sort of you know find a new space in that in that new world somehow and we I know that we could predict advance what that's gonna be like but to me it seems like that that is going to be probably somebody never ball just given the fact that the notion of job creation in the traditional sense of like a long term job in a company that you stay in for 20 years and your benefits in the gold watch doesn't they're not creating more of those in general I don't know you guys make a study more about letting market than I do but that's my intuition so I feel like you yeah like if we can get away from that idea of like we have to build things around like we as you said like not cities but building as cities around like we need to have people get to a job and just do what we need as much of that the future well yep they're not right no I don't know I'm not sure and I think in a future where you're changing jobs every month it's even more important that you live near where the jobs are right because you're that was the end he's searching for a job if yeah yes if you if you if you're if by that you mean like a decent work as opposed to well I guess it'll full-time job like like doing kind of yeah they gave you a condo right I'm that certainly true that's very true for me in my personal situation I have a small company yeah we went Boston because yeah there's a lot of work we can do but it would I would you know you know in a world we had a basic income it would be good not to do some of that but not be spending all your time hustling sake it would be that would be nicer to do less and Ranko hustling yeah and I think this raises the question of would say job what do we mean so there's always ways for you to spend your time you know doing something or there might be interesting to you and if that's our definition of job then wherever you go there's an unlimited number of jobs right if it's this kind of contractual thing with an employer where you're getting paid a certain minimum amount and you have to work a certain minimum amount of time every week that's kind of what we think of as a job in today's society but if we have a basic income then you know when you talk about living living near where the jobs are what is even a job at that point what tier ends you have that yeah that's kind of what I'm thinking there I'm thinking I type well I don't know like the terminology is weird because it's like the condition by language we use right so I'm always like you know like I do I have a job it's a facial sense no the dog work yes right so and we all do kinds of different kinds of work you know whether or not it's defined by this rule possible a job right independent even of people having more or fewer jobs there's also a lot of technology that's enabling people not to have to work on the site which also gives people the flexibility to not have to commute into Thanksgiving I presume that could put like some take some pressure and that's probably already taking a little pressure off the housing market but at the same time for all that that's happening we are having these like crazy housing yeah price spikes the hub place right yeah and I guess I wonder like if you looked at the historical data we're doing other people calling it a crisis already doing this but like is this just what happens where you like you know have this snowball effect a city gets within demand it gets so high-priced everyone's like okay screw this and then like some other city apart you know like then other cities get built up and people move out or it could be so yeah we're like yeah yeah you buds like it's a size and that kind of buds off like a violent like I'd like it like a cell right that's something like there cuz it seems like at a certain point like even like you know you're you're thinking like okay should I really live in New York or San Francisco or should I live and see how it'll or something and it's just so expensive in San Francisco that you moved to Seattle I never thought about it this way before this discussion but I do think I'm I went back to the thought I was having about how you know there are these kind of winner-take-all rich get richer right paint backs that that lead to you know the distribution of city sizes yeah yeah I've the creation of really huge cities in that if it weren't for the fact that the city that was gonna you know really win that once and for all it's too expensive for many people like that's what live that's what limits it yeah exactly I think so right yeah I I don't know this this is related with another thing and it's been kind of on my mind I first it was how many years ago it was but I remember really clearly that in the same I was probably like the same issue of The New Yorker or something but but but there was a bunch of hype about virtual reality and I was exposed to any of the universal basic income and I was like oh great obviously people are gonna build giant hives out in you know Nevada currently unused land and be like okay virtual reality junkies just sign over your basic income and welcome to your new pod you're soylent shakes which obviously is very kind of like dystopian way of describing it but I don't know I do think there's like I was trying to reformulate that into a kind of a thought experiment like what like does it is there some threshold of universal basic income for example that makes it economical for a developer to develop like no fine where it's cheapest to do a new thing and you like severe for right for people who have some kind of interest like playing video games or whatever and you know they want to move someplace specifically because they'll be cheap enough for them not to have any other income right and they're willing to sacrifice you know being at the beach or whatever it is and utopian community almost right but the intentional community but on a large scale yeah but that right and you don't maybe doesn't have to be the large right I mean but but it seems like there it still costs money to build right yeah even like a bunch of bright little cells for video games but the materials costs are going down like Richard was saying right like you couldn't build some pretty cheap housing that properly I guess yeah maybe if that was a threshold I mean yeah I'll be hard to turn that to a threshold because it would depend like okay how monk like are we really gonna be right and also be continuing I'm like maybe instead of building you know this hive in the middle of the desert you go to Detroit which already you know like it's kind of a depressed city but it's already City and it's got some infrastructure in place and you build some housing there and maybe people can rely on that and use some of their basic income to pay rent and you know you can kind of kickstart to sit here jump started yeah right like the whole libertarian seasteading thing where they build this on city out of them like a hundred miles off the coast of California right there's also actually like planning on building one and like the sea upon Doris or something like that we have an agreement with the countries around it we have to use local labor that construct it but they get to have all their do pretty much whatever they want they heard and there's also this like cruise ships we're thinking outside off of California or if you have people who are legally allowed to go into the u.s. to to like tech communities are sort of like there huh yeah so there are a lot of possibilities I don't I worry about them getting hit by Hurricane and also having the law they probably have their you know up their own right there are libertarians are yeah I was just thinking about that he joins into it it's it into a like a like a shipping container right it's one of the characters is taken on by Lau explainer no you guys you watch funny it's very much the whole city needs without a shortage the way no more housing so simple so I think we've kind of established here that it's not quite that simple you have more links to the highway where people can grab through the highway you build more housing in San Francisco you know it's it's it's it's unclear that that's that that's gonna be the answer to the question you may end up create a lot more luxury condos you may end up creating a lot more luxury condos and you know the people who say build more housing would say okay well that's because that's the market rate or housing right now and you keep building on the market rate until the market rate goes down and hypothetically you could you know there could be some of you build seven billion luxury housing units in San Francisco there's nothing for everyone in the world to the to Francisco and some of those developers who thought they were building luxury condos are gonna be disappointed and eventually they'll stop building Jimmy woods or the or the Lord will just lose money on the homes they already built and start running 4G but it's like a trickle down in housing construction right well I think well yeah maybe what you're saying alex is that you might have to pee I mean to do it like for this logic to apply you might have to build a lot of unit it's like way more than yeah so just kind of hang out or what you could say is everyone who lives in San Francisco is a resident of San Francisco and nobody else has ever allowed San Francisco now if we build housing in San Francisco at the market rate you know that will probably help the prices come down but San Francisco isn't like an isolated market there were none of these really expensive housing Micra portraits are isolated markets yeah yeah but you know I do feel like yeah that's it and then a good point that you I think your mom just poured off about the amazons knew your location was I thought they might come up too because I feel like that's another interesting development that's now like corporations are now kind of like you know speculating about whether and that's gonna change that housing market was anyone here a little with any part of them a little disappointment that it wasn't lost oh yeah I'm the boss man I didn't find that I mean yeah it was a rough season for Northern Virginia in New York City they did two of them they're doing one in New York City yeah believe it or not what I been and it turns out it's okay I've heard I've heard the New York housing market hasn't been doing so great I think there's I mean there's some kind of scam going on like I think they knew exactly where they were gonna go and this was all a bid to get as much data from the city's money and money and money incentives yeah but also where they're building it in New York City has been Long Island City right yes recent regulation has all these government incentives if you do something in like a distressed area or something this one is one of those bills Jeff besos a helipad that part of it so he'll be in he's not gonna be taking the seven train wait so the other one is Northern Virginia yeah where your sister is Washington DC but also close to where there's already 11 hi Connie okay so it's not really gonna help any place we might I like it didn't build the tree yeah and it's like the it the deal or the projections or the you know he's guaranteeing to create like 50,000 jobs at an average salary of 150,000 I think it's but most of those people won't be the people that are displaced they won't be giving jobs I mean there'll be some probably some affect local effect from the economy on that but I'll be my suspect to be more displacement and they felt sure I mean just the fact that the average salaries in the energy yeah it's not like not mostly they're the people off the street right you know yeah but I mean it's interesting because it part of this snowballing effect because because if I guess Amazon really wants to be in a place where there's already a lot of qualified employees that are even higher so it's like one of these things are it's like you might say it would be good for social aggregate for it to like help spread out the population from the housing perspective but like from Amazon's perspective they one of you or other people already are and so it only increases that with it or the house that costs about and the infrastructure and everything yeah I mean everybody yeah everything's already there so it goes back to what I was saying before about the sort of like the global city phenomena we get concentration of and then there corporations are kind of like moving their headquarters around these kind of few locations that right was basically leaving the rest of the country in the dust yeah so I guess it's back to that question is like how do you how do you build up how do you get the snow bomb happen in other places yeah I mean I think the answer that she says the way you build more housing so simple I think you know the way you can fix this kind of shortage is create more areas that are desired desirable to live yeah that's nice yeah so that's a where's the demands right exactly does it give it is it increase the appeal of living somewhere where you don't necessarily need to be you're that high paying jobs you know right like basic income it makes it viable to live in a variety of more different places in addition to make it easier to afford to move because you can pay a little bit costs it also means that the places you move to you now have more options so I think you know and that doesn't have to be the middle of the desert it can be moving to a city that is already a city but maybe wouldn't have the kind of job you wouldn't need it to support yourself if they were kind of making fun this could also help solve the minority rule problem the Senate right where you have a light look like a lot of small states and just poor amount of power like oh you're like a few tens of thousands of people that move to Wyoming who have just like nationwide average voting patterns that's interesting about that yeah I mean I think I don't know if it'll necessarily solve that problem because I think people are still gonna tend to want to live in cities and there are plenty of kind of cheaper cities out there none of them are in Wyoming but maybe a small effect should none of the murder but if you want to literally take your thousand dollars a month or whatever ends up being and have it goes as far as possible somebody's gonna want to go to Wyoming that would want to go to white otherwise you know that's where it's really but there are going to be people who want to leave Wyoming too and I think I'm more of those people because they're like oh now I can afford to live in some cities but even a small maybe in a small shift couldn't still out by the time like that's one possibility yeah why isn't it still following your aggregate here that kinetic moving to the cheaper places well it's not just moving to the cheaper places like the cheapest place is you know in terms of housing prices right so people are gonna move to places that have infrastructure that have you know they still a lot of them are still gonna want jobs but maybe they can afford a lower paying job or something like that it's not it's not just about moving to the place for your dog any taxes or any predators it seems to me to make that work a some degree you're gonna need some level of you know initial government infrastructure to get the role in normal as I can't see it just happening completely driven by like just purely market forces you know and basically it would be sort of part of a series of things about rethinking how we it's a three soonest I have enough network effective the right word but if you could somehow get a lot of people to like expect other people to move there at the same time and let's move there themselves right because you don't want to live someplace that's to you know anyone yeah yeah was a huge enemy like down well in the like four hundred years ago people they had these in Germany they had these people signing up people or all of the different City and having them all move it once – out of the Eastern Europe and things like that interesting or and they also had it in the eastern US going out west and I had to send out people to go through fall at the same time yeah suddenly the West's I mean the bones we may have to really face with climate change – right oh yeah good point yeah I think I think what Alex said is right that there needs to be like some kind of kernel to build around of maybe government or something already in place but I also think you know we have plenty of cities we have plenty of cities that are cheap to live in and so we have plenty of kernels we don't I mean like for next thing of having like complex in the middle of the desert corner it was you know plays virtual reality that's kind of a from scratch thing and it's not out of the question but we don't necessarily need that to solve the Hagins cheaper to do it in Detroit all right yeah exactly where there's already infrastructure and maybe for this particular thing if the basic income is high enough and you know you can get enough people to move to this VR complex or something like that maybe it does become more profitable to build it in the middle of nowhere but there's right but at certain point in the middle of nowhere people it's more expensive because then you have to really start from scratch for the trailer the exactement that's kind of like the enemy right now well and then Detroit I think I was reading that it was undergoing a sort of president d development some some of it you know the city parks like they've actually knocked down whole box and kind of like like you know these gardens and you know you know these parts and stuff like that so that actually at some level that my team might stop being attractive for certain kind of right people to move they're actually there if you could build like skyscraper apartment building and there's a like Chicago there's a trend where there bill parks on top of the of their skyscrapers it actually reduces the heating costs and things like that and there's also a trend where they're trying to build parks underneath underground or have these like mirrors that reflect the sunlight huh that's an interesting and so those could be attractive as well yeah yeah another thing that we haven't really talked about is like what would the impact basic income be on crime rates and like how would that affect the number of areas where people were like reasonably happy to live yeah because because some one of the sort of deal-breakers if you have a high crime rate then the same people can not be there they're gonna be there right so then that's not really available in Ghana they had a basic income proper and they they actually increased Kousuke cohesion because people were expecting people here they are like beggars and but if they had basic income anymore they actually were expecting people to want ask for money so they can they were more wealthy to socialize with them and people were built it was you be more self employed and so they could actually decrease the crime wait before had money and so they didn't need to go and steal right yeah we're just talking about like the impact on crime that we think doesn't have and how that might affect like where people want to live or a major have you have you done any basic income meet up on that subject on crime I haven't you know yeah that was interesting one you know and I think you know I think that's right I think if people aren't desperate they're less likely to commit crimes and if you know if I as a person deciding where to live I feel a lot safer moving to a place where people around me are desperate right so with the basic income then that's everywhere so so it's it's not just about you know this place is cheaper and depressed and my money's going to go further there it's also that now that we have a basic income there's some of the other downsides of living in this area are now gone or lessened right I guess that's part of what I'm thinking about when we brought it like Detroit for example yeah like people could more easily move them if they weren't so worried about behind I don't know if you're still going to pick but there was there's still some crime in the I mean but there's crime everywhere yeah yeah but it's one of the things that drives hasn't caught up in other places they get nothing thank you because they want to do the same when everyone's here yeah meanwhile in Detroit there's these people who are buying up all the foreclosed houses and fixing up the nicer ones and just tearing down the other ones to go no in Detroit what's driving the demand for the market about like they're planning for people to actually want to move there you sure it's okay yeah I mean an important aspect of the housing market is the speculative aspect right people aren't just by hasn't to live in they're buying you know they want to buy a house you know at a reasonable price and then you know with the idea that they ever wanted to move they can sell it at a higher price and you know there are other people who aren't even thinking about living there just want to use this effect to to turn a profit for the house and then it seems to me that's that the the increasing presence of that speculative market especially these global global cities now you get like people coming in that really has a major effect on yeah on the housing price like huge right beyond just like them's the plot new who supplied the man cuz they they can afford to like leave them vacant right I was wondering about that like I don't know is that a meaning I don't I don't know if that's a meaningful effect is that a meaningful effect like I hear about these places in New York or whatever that are just nobody's living there because they're basically just an investment yeah I don't know how much that how many of those there are and if they really I don't know the stats on it but I do know that that does happen in lots of seeds like in London Sydney anywhere from right and why don't they choose to also rent them out and make extra money they'd like to be able to use them from time to time okay I think sometimes yes when super wealthy wants it isn't actually like London and New York those are actual cases where people launder their money there so that they can escape taxes so if they there's like this I don't Brenda that if you get your money and past a certain point it that you can actually looks like illegitimate money and that they are they buying property as a way of like holding their money in like like the mom and things like that good like that the Russian mob that's what they did what I like thank you before was there like soft properties so they're like storing it the wealth in the houses in the houses and then somehow and then getting that out to their to the to the to the Mafia or something later or maybe you're you're hanging and you're paying someone for something is legal and the way you're doing that is by buying I've heard that happens on the on that foot that's what Paul Manafort that's how Paul Manafort was ordering his money right like he had these millions paid for by the Ukrainians oh yeah it was okay you know setting up an LLC that's gonna buy a con in Manhattan and then it's paid for by a you know wire from Ukraine right I don't know it's like it's an area where there's a lack of transparency and like transaction you know they can handle millions of them beyond market idea they do that too so we're talking about all this shady stuff right now that it's kind of like obviously shady if you talk about it but there's elements of this in stuff that we think of as perfectly normal like when people have a house and they think of their house is an investment then that means part of the reason they bought the house was for these same kinds of reasons you know hoping hoping that it's going to increase in value over time and ideally what you want in terms of access to housing is you want housing to be as cheap as possible how's it gets cheaper that screws over anyone who is thinking of their home as an investment or is using it for that purpose and you know if I borrowed a ton of money to buy but what if I release at least some of that perception is the feeling that that's one of the few assets you have been if you and then and therefore you takes pressure if you having a job but you can basically income right is that kind of where you're going again I'm only going to go that way just now but I'm glad that you did do better and actually promote renting over buying a home sooner your policy and so they that's why it's rather affordable to write houses there because if you have your if you set your goal to rent rather than buy then you it keeps how the the home value is lower which means it keeps friends lower as well well in the US they promote home ownership is it just the way to go it's like a value in itself right like a butcher and there's my unquestioned butcher grin there's a pretty significant tax benefit and how because the industry interest do that yeah so let's listen to another segment here but why shouldn't wasn't a greedy developers they just want to make money well Sonja's feeling was okay so they're greedy so what I don't see what the point isn't moralizing something like that like it doesn't seem like it helps the problem I actually think that's why I went into economics because economics generally is that one of the values that underlies it is that moralizing about people's behavior isn't super productive so I agree with that and everyone's greedy in the sense that everyone wants to make money you know the homeowners who have their house as an investment they don't want the value there has to go down that's you know you can frame that as greeting and you know everyone's you know the developers are doing what they do because that's how they make money and I mean like you can say that the people who are on the other side are greedy and therefore we shouldn't listen to them but you could say that about pretty much anyone in a market economy right look but I think they were teasing like they can't trust the developers to give them like a balanced view of the impact of their development because they have a conflict of interest would be balance entry for sure but I think you can't give homeowners a balanced view either you can't like go to home order and say you know it would be really good for the community if the price of your house were to me isn't more about sort of like making the rules like you know like if it moves on such that that you get a lot of benefit from from just hearing these behaviors then you're gonna get sort of negative outcomes overall well but I mean to make it more concrete it's like we're you know we think we should change the zoning in this neighborhood so then you know people can build higher or four units yeah well also thing that people are like I mean yeah I think they it's sure it's true that people want to you know they want to make money in the sense they want to live but I think the the amount to which people pursue that as an end in itself versus like balancing other parts of what they didn't know life is varies from individual individual if you build a society around assuming that everybody is like you know like this is the only thing that I care about they care about nothing else then you're that's that's like it to me that's the problem is that you sort of like you you assume that everybody is this kind of like individual profit maximizing an agent that's the only thing that you do you know the only thing that drives your behavior is that then and if you build the rules around that then it's sort of they kind of like you know becomes almost a self-fulfilling prophecy where is like if you have a society that's kind of like recognizes different aspects of your human nature that are don't necessary fall into the a purely economic paradigm then you can get something that's not quite as as crazy as system we have now so I don't know it's like to me it's like yeah I mean I sort of I agree with the idea that you know it's not that doesn't necessarily yes it sort of it just not useful to be able just to say to people yeah like your ego your we even I could you know stereotype people like that because it doesn't help them it doesn't help you lipsticks pop conversation so to me it's like how do you like build up I don't know what I'm doing with this but yeah so the difference between you know kind of an ad hominem attack like I don't like you because of what you represent and therefore your argument is wrong versus saying you know like you're saying this and this is actually going to hurt the community hurt the economy for right reason these are the consequences are that yeah right I agree here what do you think that doesn't make me think I was like in terms of who makes the decision it seems like there might be an incentive problem in the sense that if you're making the decision to locally even if your local people are mostly renters which is a big if in France if he's coming to these meetings and they want the rent to go down like like we've been talking about they might build them into houses and their local rent doesn't go down because other people just move there basically the decision makers might not be controlling a large enough area so that they can actually address the whole problem which could be at the level of the city or even like we said at Louisville the Nathan because otherwise people just going to move to that city instead of the other city and so there's like kind of no incentive there's like a reducer preventive to build the housing locally because you're just gonna have more people move there and we're ready to commit stay the same or go up and and so what you really need is like the right school the decision makers have to be at the right skills there that'd be a sentence incentives are alive I think that it's a little bit of a stretch for a little bit analogy with uh with ways schools are funded in here with property taxes is like you know like yeah expensive neighborhood gets really good schools and you're not trying this but a state wants to try and make all the schools better well they don't have really the tools to do that and say wait because everything is driven by yeah I think I think I agree I think it's a there's an important difference in the sense that at least the local people are empowered to improve their own situation fortunately not ever like the other people situation but here even the local people like even if they want to bring rents down because other people can move there like they they can't even do that by building houses well yeah that's true they don't even control the local situation I mean otherwise I agree in the sense of like where the decision-makers are more beautiful yeah like the libertarian guy at the forum said he wanted to introduce zoning laws at the federal level so that all the places were everywhere we see different more open zoning laws at the same time so that more buildings would be reduced so yeah I think what he wanted to do was create a subsidy for cities where in order to qualify for the cities you had to do away with all your residential yeah so so pay cities to have basically everything right and I think something like that you know could make a difference whereas you know absorbing a particular districts in a particular city maybe not so much yeah not my overall feeling from the podcast was that there's sort of like a you know like a lot of these tools they're like definitely need to be used in terms of construction to do demand and stuff but like really questioning like you know making sure that the that you're actually arguing it is actually going to benefit the people who say it's gonna benefit and that isn't doesn't just become another way for a small number of people to basically monopolize all the returns and I think that's the challenge to me that's always a challenge for these kinds of things is that you know like yeah how do you make sure that you're though you know you know what is it that expression year so privatize the games and socialize the losses you know I'm kind of like how do you do that rain or and making it the eme thing seems a little bit like it's like the right that I've identified the problem but the solution is is a little too in my head to narrow a tool to what they actually want to achieve which is like prevent preventing gentrification say or at least alleviating the effects of it so I don't know it's not the basic income topic but but that was kind of my my feeling of it other people have feelings about that gentrification part of it well I think the Indies were not I didn't feel like they were saying we're gonna gentrification they're saying we don't want to be so expensive right yeah no no no I know no I guess what I was saying is I think like they're their solution would probably if done in a very sort of like purely market-based way would probably lead to more gentrification I guess the classic economics argument that I'm guessing she has in her head and it would be just that like like the trickle-down thing you're saying like yeah like everything's gonna get less expensive which means even the lower end housing is gonna get less expensive and it should just hit everybody you know I think the the scale and the time the timescales and the and the spatial scales are too like like people need relief now that's gonna take too long yeah and it's too theoretical or right and it's not just that it's gonna take you long it's that if you have a specific city and you're just doing it in the specific area you know the market is more than just that specific right I totally you're but I guess I find it useful as like a starting point like here's the theoretical like this is what should happen just according to that curve Yusef on demand know what's what is she wrong about it's like how I was approaching like if it's not gonna happen that way why isn't it gonna happen that way you know like for example because other people will move in and so it won't actually decrease or they could won't happen fast enough or and I think the guy from the Kennedy forum will look at sin his plan of doing it all at once across the entire country that's a market-based solution and that's something that I think could could work pretty fast and pretty well and when we talk about when we talk about gentrification it kind of includes like a lot of a lot of different things but generally it means you know richer people moving into an area at the same time the area's getting more expensive and other people can't afford it and that kind of thing and it's generally also associated with like improving the quality of infrastructure and you know improving the businesses and reducing crime and you know like all these other other things that make that area more appealing to people who can afford more appealing areas but if you have that if all you're doing is is you're saying more houses can be built everywhere then that's a market-based solution but it's not like an isolated one specific area market-based solution where the market is where and this area's there's just one tiny segment of it yeah it raises another question to me which is like we've been talking about how it's almost a natural solution in a way for Jenna or for people for like more areas to be becoming more desirable places to live and you know sound like a good thing that seems like a good thing but then there's this cost where like you know we've talked about how people have like social connections and like other routes in a particular place so it's not necessarily ideal for like this group to like move here and then this we've moved here and then this moves here and then this move yeah that's like so how do you how do you make more places more desirable to live and have them be somehow and have that not see you don't get the bracelet okay I mean I don't know I don't see how they can come so quality of life everywhere right it does but I don't see how it solves the bumping each other out of the location problem that's it there I feel like that would still happen probably not on its own but it may be a layer I don't think it hurts it but well you know I think it gives people the freedom to move away from locations that they already might want to move away from like what she's talking about so the first people to get bumped out those people already want to be bumped out and there are some people who might have an incentive to stay because they have other stronger ties to the areas and it's not clear to me to what degree they would get bumped out or even if if how they would get cheaper for them because of the people who are leaving that kind of thing like I imagine so the basic income it creates more livable in everywhere so I imagine that except in maybe weird special case scenarios the the housing prices are going to go down everywhere where they're really expensive right now right and you may become up in some areas that are really cheap but not come up beyond the point where some of the basic income before deliver wait why not I guess I feel like that would happen because the people who are moving to those areas are doing that because they can afford to live there on a basic income but I wouldn't some people like the same way that gentrification happens now where it's like oh like this it like like downtown Boston's a little too expensive right and so like Somerville gentrified and then like Watertown gentrified you know this is kind of like seems like a natural and to some degree beneficial process but then the problem is for like the people who already live there not it's a little bit of a different process because it's kind of it's the the force is coming from the other direction instead of so in the process you describe you know stuff gets too expensive so that pushes people in other places and they push other people they push people in other places with basic income you can imagine we've now created all this land outside and then pull those people it pulls people to those places and then you know the places they got pulled from get a little bit cheaper and that pulls people there and cetera et cetera so it's less about forcing people out it's what I learnt that place is very influenced you become more comes in like one place if they're getting pulled two are gonna get more expensive but those places up ultimately are gonna be very cheap places wouldn't it happen at every gradient I wouldn't only be like did she yeah so so it's not it's not going to get more expensive at every gradient because what you're doing is you're you're allowing you're allowing people to spread out more you're giving people more options so you'd expect the really expensive areas to get cheaper yeah and there are really really cheap areas to get maybe a little bit more expensive but then there's some some area in between where price is just kind of stay the same where you know everyone gets a basic income and you know that causes more people to move there but you know it's not it and that causes prices to raise up to kind of just about where they work for so the people who are living there before are paying was saying prices they were paying before but now they would basically come on top of it so they're a little bit richer that kind of thing so that's kind of like the middle middle ground but there is a play there has to be a place where it seems like a job for an agent-based model yeah I mean legging with something it's to really I mean like I can't say for sure of like where that threshold is going to be but there's got to be a threshold somewhere because the newer housing market is going to crash at their face become like it has to as people have the freedom to leave now and you know the the price of things in some rural town you know are it may be gonna be a little bit higher than it used to be and also a lot of people are probably going to be moving away from that rural town into into more sitting areas now the thing so it's not just going to be people in the most concentrated areas move out it's not just going to be an outward effect there's also going to be an inward effect from like rural areas where people cannot afford to look closer to more infrastructure and that kind of stuff too so there's kind of like there depending on which part of the system you're looking at different things are going to be happening has have people done the research on this year this is probably a wide-open area yeah I mean I think someone should do something I had some experience doing so yeah no I mean that would be really great if you wanted to like at least put in some like hypothetical numbers and yeah yeah yeah yeah Nick and I sort of just too bad you around the idea but doing something related to that and yeah the housing thing might be interested in a place to start over there just a mind moving right yeah I can imagine like the really really rural areas people are going to leave those areas and they're going to become slightly more expensive because there's gonna be less infrastructure there like like there is some right but I really like the simplicity in your idea of crazy evening out but now you're adding in like various other factors and I feel like I can do like they're really I mean I think with simplest thing is that you see you see prices deepening out like that's the the overall model the overall picture that we don't want to lose sight of where you know people can afford to live in cheaper places you know the quality of life improves more the cheaper places so you see those places getting slightly more expensive and then you see Goodridge place is getting slightly kind of like depending on the levels of basic income there some like floor beneath which people just like have enough money that nobody wants to live there anymore and then those places also get cheaper or like those places were getting more expensive you have to be like really weird if you wanted to like live in Antarctica there or something like that or if you had like I don't think I don't like basic income is gonna kind of stem the tide of like rural communities dying off it might even accelerate it so then if you want to live in like a tower you're the only person stuff is gonna get more expensive once you're in an awkward timing that I mean then you're maybe not buying the same stuff like I mean you still want to buy you know all your stuff you know on Amazon and I know ya delivering not expertise but yeah I mean like there's a lot of like little individual like quirky edge cases that we can think of but you know generally speaking prices would even out and yeah yeah and I think there's so there's there's a few different classes of people here there's renters and then there's owners right and they kind of want to run things and then there's people who are already living in the communities versus people who are looking for somewhere to move and or want to move into a community right and they're kind of looking for different things to I think among the renter's the people who are already living in community want really low rents and people who are moving and also want really low rents so the renters are kind of aligned on what they want rather they're moving in or whether they're already there at least with respect to the amount of rent now they might not be aligned on you know the rent of the renters who already lived there might want to see improvements in their community because those improvements are worth it even my grades that rent a little bit you know something like that but generally speaking the renter's are aligned with each other there's also they were talking about the ethnicities people wanting more of the same in this ethnicity or the me remain the same in the area right like you've got your community has a certain makeup and it's got a certain culture and you kind of want to want to keep that so this has a little bit to do with like you know people being pushed out temperatures too late so everything you know displacement I'm a sorting I think you're a big sword we really value being read like like-mindedness there's a ton of like um efficiency to that like you know now you you have the very kind of restaurants and activities and stores and all that stuff that like all the people in that geographical area like and that just makes some degree of sense yep you it's funny good I felt people wonder they weren't certain kind of diversity in some areas and right so much should have mostly food is what different kinds of food that's good but yeah I mean like even for things like um like dating I feel like when people aren't partners like they're a big job to live in a place a lot of people is like dating and you also want to be around people that are already like similar enough but it's like cool something that I met Mike Ross like Rachel me that Mike Ross that but maybe not like other kinds of things like for a lot of people maybe you wouldn't cross politics as much it wouldn't cost values and butter or whatever it is that like people want to a sort on it might not be your ethnicity but it might be something girls your education level you know but whatever but it's just I feel like it's a why am I saying all this I think what I'm what I'm going for your is like there's a force that I think is just gonna be there in terms of the the sorting to some degree you're like people wanting to be around similar people for all your yeah yeah yeah yeah and I think like that sometimes like you know that there's a yeah like no matter you know in economic incentives there might be like not as responsive to them as much as you might think because of that right books writings right right or the new place would have to have the same kinds of things or something yeah yeah you know and I think like I don't know like two very tiny communities like you know like in the Boston area like we'll live there for generations right right I know about – yeah yeah yeah yeah that's right okay so I guess homeownership kind of like some what makes that more possible because some of the ways that like people can stay in the same place for generations does like you know rent scope change like maybe go up is that they own their house we're gonna pass it down to like their child or something yeah right control also yeah I was staying in the same place for sure although I was also thinking about that and how it kind of limits mobility it does limit mobility and it also it also makes the incentives of the renters who are already there or under rent control no longer aligned with the renters who are looking to move into the area right because the renter is looking to move into the area want the market rate to be low and the rent controlled renters want their own rent to stay low did not market right so that kind of puts the two classes of renters at odds with each other and if you've ever met your photos it works yeah because rent control presently increases other rent yeah yeah you know by reducing the the quantity of housing that's available at market rate you're you're increasing that market rate and it's the same thing with like government some that I was having or low low income housing that kind of thing now you're now you're you're taking you're basically taking units off the market right so let's listen to another segment yemen's one of them is practical see you have these complain a lot about neighborhoods making it hard to build this but Fernando says that's not the main reason there's a shortage of housing he says the big problem is it's just really really expensive to do anything in Central District of San Francisco it is so expensive the only kind of housing that developers can figure out how to finance is high-end condos for rich people see this is like what I couldn't understand this is I didn't know I wanted to know more about this because I couldn't figure out why what he meant by it so expensive like in that the kind of raw materials they have to mine probably there's already and the cost of the gaming program is that I didn't think about that okay I don't know something because the Central District is already so built out here yeah all you can build are like skyscrapers and stuff like that and I know it's just like an expensive go they're expensive Davila yeah they did it complicated to build because there's so many other buildings around them to close streets near crazy city for that right engineering because he's contrasting it with neighborhoods making it hard so it seems like it's something else besides like zoning yeah he's yeah so he's not he's saying that not it's not the neighborhood regulations are making hard it's just by the fact that the Central District is already so built up that also the land value of the Central District it's all the right maybe University there or something like that right people were when the value of the land would be worth more than say in the outskirts and rent right like an empty locks in the middle of the central central district of San Francisco is gonna cost you a pretty penny yeah whereas an empty lot you know I get it but then wouldn't it still be the case that if they built more and they built luxury houses or whatever that would take the rent like that would put still the downward pressure on right and other ledger has its which was supposedly gonna do this little trickle-down thing yeah I mean it it then you have to ask I mean this is the whole thing like the is not yeah I mean but he's not thinking about that this guy so what is he telling I think he's just I don't know if he has like a picture of like the global market and you're just doing this one thing creating luxury partners I don't know agent that or concept of that but I think he is noticing something that's real great which is that you know if you ask a developer what they're building they're saying oh we're building luxury apartments and you ask them why they're saying well that's what we can afford that's that's that's what's that it's so good about this like the only thing you can write these as a source it's like a step function you can't just like build like a small something small scale because the amount of Cocteau costumes to be anything is like so high right things I think that's a Miami vision okay maybe but but maybe it's also seems just as likely that's just because they can also make more money for them right right they can make the most one right wouldn't they I mean it yeah wouldn't they be doing that either way if it'll be both of us any family well they're always gonna be trying to make money probably both factors so yeah yeah I mean the question is so like what how much more are these luxury apartments gonna be like is it the case where the luxury condos in the case where the luxury condo is going to cost you know a hundred times you know the amount that you could get for like a little mini unit and then then our whole like discussion before about like you cram five people you can't carry harder people I don't think it's just a space I think that this is an important distinction because like it's not just about tiny units versus spookiness I think it's about the quality of materials in them and stuff like that so that's not really about how much space you're taking up yeah but I think ultimately it does come down to space if you're building a bigger unit and you know then you might add luxury amenities and stuff like that but I think that's kind of a second I disagree I think one of the reasons it can be so much more profitable per unit really valuable space is that you just put in a nicer sink inside and then you could charge a lot more without taking up any more space yeah I mean I think I think that's right I want to hear well that's like seventy years American homes be going larger so maybe if you limit the size of each apartment or a house then they you can lower the costs overall but you were talking about how you put different sinks in things well or I have mahogany floors or that's kind of like stopping though it's kind of like the trend is kind of peaked it's like going the other way now like the house is annoying like they were the McMansion phenomena is kind of like slowed down a lot more especially sister yeah but maybe so it's maybe somewhat self-limiting now is it so expensive thing on build these houses yeah but but I think Bethany is right that you know once you are building a luxury apartment you know we are gonna want to be your the reason you're building a luxury apartments because we know it's more profitable to have a bigger apartment that has all these amenities that it is to divide it into two smaller apartments or five smaller apartments or something like that but I'm also trying to say like it could be the same size of Hartman I've seen it in constantly their apartment that are the same size of an apartment and are three times as much because they have different like they're more modernized and renovated so you're also waiting money in that way and if any new development is going to be modern right yeah they do fancified them though that's what you mean yeah there might be times and so part of what they're talking very are according to a newly constructed apartment well all I'm trying to say is like I think part of what makes it so much more profitable to make lived Apartments is that you don't even have you're not even renting fewer of them you're maybe even renting the same number and they're way more expensive because you put in nicer materials and stuff and that people are but I think what allows you to write is it there's there's like a lot of pent-up demand right exactly yeah I agree okay and so it won't be profitable it seems like you have to build a whole bunch luxury units right and sort of exhaust that demand exactly yeah they before you know start getting leavin if that like the international market and like how do you that demand it's probably honest we're doing a lot to it yeah I mean there's rich people who are willing to pay more for the luxury stuff and their the degree to which they're willing to pay more for an apartment exceeds the cost of installing these various amenities so you want to do that now they're not they're not building like luxury shipping container size apartments they are building you know bigger apartments because that's what that's what these people are going to pay for and then you know I think my point is still valid they're not going to divide it into like a really small New York tenement you know size apartment yeah I guess that's that's also true but like you also get a bump up from like having well like I think it's really what Nick said I think they're like this pent up demand that you're able to it's funny cuz everybody that's right even where you know in Arlington rather like everything you it's got luxury on it everything like this lucky yeah there's no there's an I was ever seen at a development in this house in the corner which is it was an old house and it's like if stripping and everything and they're putting a luxury but it's not really they're not like building a whole new building that's completely fresh it's like they're basically grabbing it and showing it it's like well there's an advertising issue there too right like ran to catch up but yeah they have no incentive not to me yes a life every another thing they're like one side point one thing that is a little bit strange about economics that might play into some of these houses is like there's also the costly signaling photo for like people are willing to spend money that they can spend money and you don't necessarily have to give them like a bigger apartment or anything a functional value to do that like you just give them a diamond you know studded toilet remember and like jumpy because people are having a function of trying to show that they can spend the money so there's really some of that that's interesting I think I think part of what you're paying for with the luxury amenities is that I say that's a part is I can't worry yeah and that doesn't cost any space for the developers and maybe it doesn't even cost that much right if when you're if what your function isn't spending a lot in the permit is just show that you can spend a lot on the part on an apartment that's a really good deal for the apartment make are so whenever there's a costly signaling in there it's gonna be like we're more profitable for them yeah I mean that's that's part of the amenities that they've had I would say that the most like we're talking about a luxury anything usually the stuff that makes it luxury is an excuse to charge way more than noble then what if what it actually costs to put that luxury thing in so luxury car it doesn't really use that many more materials or technology than a regular car but you have these like little niceties and bells and whistles and you can charge a lot more so you're defining it electric bike – fela because that's how i would talk about that otherwise I would say why are people willing to pay so much for it I would say there's a there's a costly signaling component to luxury I would say that that's part of it it's why you're why you're willing to pay disproportionately more right yeah good although and you should have merely different disproportionately where you should pay as much as you enjoyed the little bells and whistles or else you just buy the other car I would say the costly signaling is one of the bells and whistles you're paying for yeah like it's the thing that drives up the price more than the cost of putting than this isn't yeah it's not cost base it's it's and and you know part of it is like if you are just really super rich you're not thinking about price which also is another another signal to people I'm not even thinking about price I just want all of these things great yeah so so that allows luxury carmakers to charge what kind of whatever they want and and similar for the apartment as well not give bad leaves or your Rolls Royce yes I'm that your name well it's just like a very specific different than how people and consumer behavior where it's like if you're buying something to show off that you can spend a lot of money you're not sensitive to price in the same way yeah like you're not gonna want it to be cheap in the same way that you do it with mostly don't want the whole point but use that but you don't want it to be cheap so economics working and and I think you know clearly the fact that that you know developers are building luxury apartments and you know I think part of what they're recognizing is that the market rate or where this housing is so high that they can afford to add these luxury amenities like it doesn't really make that much of a difference for the developer but it does you know allow them to to compete on dimensions other than price with the other apartments in the area and they can charge a little bit more or that kind of right right and I guess this kind of goes back to next point that there's just like a really high demand like there's just a lot of fun demand one of the things that I've thought about a little bit in relation to rent and housing I guess is if you're give and I think it's I mean I almost don't working out for anything it's like this stuff is complicated enough for that I'm in this in but it's your acres if we're imagining a like a bootstrap basic in like circles regression and I mean it kind of doesn't matter if you if you think it's gonna sort of just grow explosively and you know effectively take over all at once but if it has to go through you know a period of more gradual growth like how does that change how does that how does that change this question it's like how or or I mean I guess the question that I found myself thinking about a while ago more in relation to circles I guess is you know does is it different is is how our housing costs or rent is there anything special about it and to think through in terms of is it especially valuable the better or worse than other things to try to include in in the building of residents know in the in the like flows of money that are flowing in you know in these other currencies there's some like feedback loops from like when you create a currency like this thing you like then lay should you not waste your time trying to figure out if there's a way that people can pay rent or you know part of their rent using the you think using their circles currency one thing that comes to mind is that like in a way if they're using their their basic income their aggression to like to buy their groceries then there's like they have more money to pay for rent right so you know so it's like kind of like it's going to that anyway because they're there do things for other things they don't have to use that money for that for that money becomes more available oh right right I mean that's opposed to the argument where like doesn't matter right right where people have a chance to spend it yeah and I would say ending anywhere they can spend it is is good and have more flexibility so if they can use it to pay rent then that's how they have more money left over to buy groceries yeah and that's that's and if like they don't have any other sources of income then it becomes more important because like rec is pretty important expense yeah yeah but that's why we make the most difference but also if if your only income is basic income but then other people have a basic income and they're spending you know more dollars than maybe there's more dollars to be you can compete for and get some regular money elsewhere I know this is all I don't know I yeah I think Bethany hit on for me that yeah maybe the thing that are all hinges on which is how important is it for the scheme you know or in the motivation for it or the vision that's compelling to people is it that there there's some people who are really gonna rely on it a lot or able to rely on right I mean for me the story that's compelling in relation to that is you know it's it's you know I like the idea that this would enable you know passionate activists to for the beep to more so there would be more people who are devoted to yeah who are you know living very frugally because it allows them to put their energy to people you have doing that maybe the more you'll be able to change some of these more structural some other structural elements as well right right anyway and if we're right and right that's why it's important to me if we're talking if we're about end because I live in a place where constant living it's high and I want us and I my fantasy it's happening near me then it seems it seems kind of important yeah because because housing cost is such a high such a big chunk of its budget seems like I think it's kinda know the stats are looked at but I think it has gone out as a fraction of people's average income quite substantially in the last twenty years right I mean that used to be like especially in these yeah used to be like I think they say like it should be 28% of your like no more but now as I won't 35 or something for sanity or like the warm up words or something was half their income goes towards rent or mortgage so when I think of basic income I tend to think of it as you know money that can be spent on anything so obviously some of these systems literally ideally but yeah we're here with like a transition including the including when I'm working on which is Gretchen you know it's not going to be like that initially and I think I think you know when I think about Gretchen I don't think about it being in this stage for very long where you can't spend it on very many things I think if you if you can only spend it in a very restricted way for any considerable period of time then the system is probably going to end up failing right you know I don't know if you could have a sustainable kind of complementary currency basic income that is you know pegged to the dollar where where it doesn't get more adoption to reach or kind of critical mass where people are using this currency yeah yeah I don't know I think there's there's a lot to talk about here I'm kind of tangential to the basic income in the housing market yeah but I do I do think your point that basic income basically there's a lot of problems basic income doesn't solve but people have basic income and that can give them the freedom to work more on solving some of these other problems I get that to me is that one of the key things that makes it attractive yeah it creates structures for other things to happen yeah I mean it's all the problem too but it right has these other different fates right and we can you know there's certainly arguments to be had about how how to make a basic income happen and that's that's more to your to your question like the logistics of that and how to make it happen but you know in an ideal world the government would just wake up and say oh yeah these incomes that's how that's how that's the best way to make it happen but there's other ways to kind of try to fudge it and I'm working on and other people are working and he final thoughts on housing market where we go around rhythmic you know final thought I think I'm still like with this question of how much would happen organically in terms of other communities are places springing up including whether it is a basic income and how much it would be helpful to have centralized intervention that we're talking about you know building little seeds of infrastructure or if that already exists and a lot for just those kinds of questions don't bother yeah yeah this discussion I think really sort of changed my view on some things I think I was I started out as sympathetic to the idea that like yeah I like build more units and I don't think it's not like I think that's bad now but I see more of it and and I want to think more about this question this question of like how much would it really even out and I guess for me it's probably because because I basically income increases people's freedom like it's enabling people to do what they already want to do maybe and we have the situation with a lot of pent up demand right like people want to move these but it's already a little worried that you know more people are going to be enabled to like go for that a month feeling really confident that it's it's I'll take some pressure on it's gonna take the pressure off yeah I take that back the solvent housing I'm called the housing situation or just housing market because I think like to me it's like you look there's a we talk about housing market there's life as if that's all about housing is it's like there's other things we better think about that and then and I think it's really complicated and basically income will could have all the good effects that we discussed but I think like this some other things about like how the policy of how we structure ownership how we do you like the tax incentives that we're gonna have to really dig into I don't I feel I kind of I you know this is not this is not a this is not just something that basically um couldn't help but I think it's not going to help as much as it could in other areas like jobs and things like that I feel like because of such a chunk of the economy and there's like so much you know ossification around the existing system that basic income is probably gonna you know chip at the edges on that problem and I think there's like a lot of other things in terms of like the way we you know build houses in the way we you know the whole housing market is market it's going to change so I'm a little a little less sanguine about basically incomes the ability to make a huge dent in that because it's just such a it's become such a big part of wealth creation in in in you know in the United States and other countries alright so that's where I'm a little that's where I sort of I don't know enough about it to really have a really good answer but I feel like that's this is a real problem it's it's one of the more intractable problems I think okay over the next 30 years is though mega cities are going to well populations over like 20 million or so we're going to start expanding and the countryside is going to start dissipating or there and so housing it is going to become a greater and greater problem unless we find some ways to solve it and basic income could be in it means to alleviating some of the pressure but it's not the only answer and we do not know all the effects it could have on the markets of the job market or the housing market or the services of like how I love care and whatnot but we could it's the inevitable within me the way that things are going with automation and whatnot okay well I'm good just going to go out and say that I am very confident and very sanguine in basically completely solving the highway I think I think there are you know many many complexities to this problem and I think basic income kind of gets around all of them by creating more livable space in the world and that's it we got a little bit over thanks guys for sticking around we don't have one next week the Wednesday before Thanksgiving but then in two weeks we're going to be talking about modern monetary theory which is this popular economic trend that people often accuse me of subscribing to so it's going to be how the monetary theory versus modern monetary theory so I'll see you guys in tunics car that okay that's it thank you there's a couple of questions from a few mom there

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